East Asia is facing a demographic crisis characterized by plummeting fertility rates, which is poised to significantly impact the region’s military sustainability. China, Japan, and South Korea, the key military powers in the region, are experiencing historically low birth rates, prompting urgent adjustments in recruitment standards and military policies.
Declining Fertility Rates and Aging Populations
East Asia has the lowest fertility rates globally, with South Korea at 0.72, China at 1.0, and Japan at 1.2 children per woman. Japan, in particular, is a “super-aged” society, with a significant portion of its population being elderly, while China and South Korea are swiftly following suit. These demographic trends are alarming as they forecast a shrinking pool of young people eligible for military service, raising concerns about future military manpower.
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South Korea: A Shrinking Force
South Korea mandates 18 months of military service for able-bodied men, maintaining an active-duty force of approximately 500,000 soldiers. However, the country’s exceptionally low fertility rate poses a significant challenge to sustaining this force. Choi Byung-ook, a national security professor at Sangmyung University, suggests that downsizing the military is inevitable due to the predetermined demographic decline. The former administration of President Moon Jae-in reduced the mandatory service period, and there are ongoing debates about extending conscription to women to mitigate the manpower shortage. Additionally, there are discussions about further reducing the service period to enable young people to enter the labor market earlier, as highlighted by Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
Japan: Voluntary Service Challenges
Japan, which relies on voluntary military service, faces a more severe recruitment crisis. The Japan Times reported a 30 percent decline in applicants to its Self Defense Force (SDF) over the past decade, with fewer than 4,000 recruits in 2022, falling short of the target by over 50 percent. In response, Japan raised the maximum age for new recruits from 26 to 32 in 2018, but challenges persist. The country’s shrinking pool of military-age individuals forces it to increasingly rely on technological advancements to compensate for the manpower deficit.
China: Economic and Military Adjustments
China, home to the world’s largest military, has also had to adapt its recruitment standards to maintain its ranks. This includes lowering requirements for height, weight, and vision. Andrew Oros, a professor of Political Science and International Studies, notes that China’s economic growth strategy includes leveraging a better-educated and healthier workforce, despite a shrinking demographic dividend. This approach aims to sustain economic growth and fund advanced military technologies, aligning with China’s ambition to develop a military comparable to that of the United States.
Technological Innovations: A Mitigating Factor
Despite these demographic challenges, experts argue that technological advancements could mitigate the impact on military sustainability. Both Tokyo and Seoul are investing in labor-saving technologies to compensate for the diminishing pool of fighting-age individuals. Oros emphasizes the shift towards more technologically advanced warfare, including cyber operations and grey zone tactics, which require fewer personnel. This transition could offset the demographic disadvantages until around 2050, after which the impact may diminish as technology continues to evolve.
Demographic crisis
The demographic crisis in East Asia presents a significant challenge to the military sustainability of China, Japan, and South Korea. While these nations are adjusting their recruitment standards and exploring policy changes, the long-term solution may lie in technological innovation. By investing in advanced military technologies and adapting to new forms of warfare, these countries can maintain their military capabilities despite a shrinking pool of young recruits. The evolving nature of warfare underscores the importance of not succumbing to demographic determinism and instead focusing on how technology can transform military strategies in the future.
