The Social Democratic Party (SPD) narrowly secured a victory in the eastern German state of Brandenburg, a crucial win with reverberations across Germany’s political landscape. This victory comes at a time when Germany, and much of Europe, is witnessing a steady rise in right-wing populism, primarily led by the Alternative for Germany (AfD). The far-right’s influence is increasingly shaping the discourse on key issues like migration, internal security, and national identity. The SPD’s win in Brandenburg is not just a regional victory but holds significant national and European implications.
A High-Stakes Election in Brandenburg
Sunday’s election in Brandenburg followed a tense campaign, largely revolving around pressing issues such as migration and internal security. With Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD clinching 30.9% of the votes, just ahead of AfD’s 29.2%, the narrow margin highlights a growing political divide in Germany. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new leftist movement, and the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) took third and fourth places with 13.5% and 12.1% of the votes, respectively.
The results demonstrate a deeply polarized political environment, where the traditional centre-left, led by Scholz, is battling to maintain influence amidst a rising far-right challenge. The election has implications not just for Brandenburg but for Scholz’s broader aspirations to remain SPD’s candidate for Chancellor in the upcoming federal elections.
Political Power
Yes, the SPD is increasingly feeling the pressure from the far-right, especially in regions like eastern Germany where AfD has seen significant gains. The AfD’s performance, where they captured nearly 30% of the vote in Brandenburg, demonstrates their growing electoral base, fueled by dissatisfaction with migration policies and the perceived erosion of traditional German values.
While the SPD managed to maintain control of Brandenburg, the closeness of the election result suggests that the far-right has the potential to overtake the centre-left party in future elections. Dietmar Woidke, Brandenburg’s state governor, who distanced himself from Scholz during the campaign, admitted the seriousness of the situation by vowing to resign if AfD had won. This indicates the level of political threat the far-right poses to the SPD.
The rise of AfD reflects broader concerns across Germany over migration, security, and national identity. The AfD capitalizes on these issues, positioning itself as a protector of traditional values and critic of the status quo. For the SPD, AfD’s surge presents a direct challenge to their progressive stance on immigration and social policies.
Narrow Margin of Victory
The razor-thin margin between SPD and AfD in Brandenburg is a signal of the changing dynamics in German politics. Traditionally, the SPD has governed Brandenburg since 1990 with comfortable majorities, but this election demonstrates that the far-right is no longer a fringe force. The fact that AfD came so close to unseating the SPD indicates a growing resonance of right-wing populist messaging in parts of Germany.
A narrow victory can be seen both as a warning and an opportunity for the SPD. On the one hand, it suggests that the party must urgently address the concerns of voters who are increasingly gravitating toward AfD. On the other hand, it offers the SPD a chance to rethink its strategy and appeal to a broader base, particularly on issues like migration and security where the far-right has gained ground.
For Germany, the narrow victory also signals a political realignment. Mainstream parties, including the SPD, will need to confront the far-right’s growing influence while maintaining a centrist or leftist policy agenda. This election underscores that no party can take its strongholds for granted in the face of rising populism.
SPD vis-à-vis the Far Right
The future of the SPD largely hinges on its ability to navigate the growing influence of the far-right. With the AfD now commanding a substantial portion of the electorate, especially in eastern Germany, the SPD must recalibrate its policies and messaging. Brandenburg’s election results indicate that merely relying on historical loyalties and traditional support bases will not suffice.
The SPD needs to present itself as a stronger alternative to both the far-right and other centrist parties. This means addressing the concerns of those who feel left behind by globalization and demographic changes, without compromising on its progressive values. Olaf Scholz’s leadership will be critical in defining the party’s direction. As Chancellor, he will need to balance his party’s internal dynamics, particularly as some members may push for a more centrist approach to counter AfD.
Moreover, the SPD’s ability to retain power will depend on its success in building coalitions, both within Germany and across Europe. AfD’s rise has also underscored the importance of coalition-building with other centrist parties like the Greens and the CDU to counterbalance the far-right.
What Effect Can This Victory Have on Europe?
The SPD’s victory in Brandenburg has implications beyond Germany, reflecting broader European trends where right-wing populism is on the rise. AfD’s gains mirror the growing influence of similar parties in countries like France, Italy, and Poland. The close result in Brandenburg highlights the ongoing struggle between pro-European, centrist forces and nationalist, Eurosceptic movements across the continent.
For Europe, the Brandenburg election reinforces the need for greater unity among centrist and progressive parties to fend off the rising populist tide. SPD’s win provides a glimmer of hope for centre-left forces in Europe but also underscores the need for stronger action on key issues like migration, security, and economic inequality.
Moreover, the victory of the SPD, however narrow, can be seen as a counter to the populist narrative, suggesting that the centre-left is not completely losing ground in Europe. Nevertheless, it also signals that European leaders must pay closer attention to the grievances driving voters toward far-right parties, particularly in regions that feel economically disadvantaged or culturally threatened.
How Do Experts See It?
Political experts in Germany view the SPD’s victory as both a relief and a warning. While the SPD has managed to stave off the far-right for now, the closeness of the race in Brandenburg suggests that traditional parties can no longer take their dominance for granted. Experts are divided on whether the SPD can maintain its position in future elections or whether the AfD will continue to grow its support base.
Many political analysts emphasize that the SPD needs to refocus its attention on the concerns of everyday Germans, particularly in areas like economic security, job creation, and the integration of migrants. The AfD’s success has largely been driven by a perception that the political elite is disconnected from the challenges faced by ordinary citizens. To counter this narrative, the SPD will need to bridge the gap between its policies and the real-world concerns of voters.
German politics
The SPD’s narrow victory in Brandenburg is a significant moment in German politics, one that reflects the growing influence of the far-right across the country. While the SPD has retained power, it faces a formidable challenge from AfD, whose near-victory shows that populism is no longer confined to the political fringes. For Germany and Europe, this election serves as both a wake-up call and an opportunity to address the underlying issues driving support for right-wing populism.
References:
- “SPD Wins Brandenburg State Election, Narrowly Beating AfD.” DW News, September 2024.
- “Germany’s SPD Wins Narrow Victory Over AfD in State Election.” Politico, September 2024.
- “Scholz’s SPD Holds Off AfD in Brandenburg Vote.” The Guardian, September 2024.
