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Will Americans Choose a President Who Keeps Out of Wars?

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In his recent campaign speeches, former U.S. President Donald Trump has declared his commitment to keeping the United States out of “foolish, never-ending foreign wars.” Speaking in Pennsylvania, he emphasized his opposition to interventionist policies, positioning himself as the sole candidate capable of preserving American lives and preventing the escalation of global conflicts. His remarks framed his potential Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, as “incompetent” and likely to lead the country into World War III, claiming her policies could endanger American lives through compulsory military service in conflicts abroad. This anti-war rhetoric has garnered attention across political lines and has raised critical questions about how American voters view foreign policy decisions, as well as how these issues might influence the 2024 presidential election.

Historic Shifts in Public Opinion on Foreign Engagements
Historically, Americans have shown fluctuating levels of support for foreign military engagements. The post-9/11 era, characterized by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, initially saw widespread support for U.S. intervention abroad. Over time, however, a growing number of Americans have come to view such engagements as overly costly, both financially and in terms of human lives. According to recent polls, about 55% of Americans now believe the U.S. should avoid foreign conflicts whenever possible, indicating a clear shift towards a preference for non-interventionism. Trump’s campaign pledge taps into this sentiment, particularly appealing to segments of the population wary of the substantial sacrifices made in these wars.

Economic Concerns and War-Weariness
Another contributing factor is the economic burden associated with military interventions. The estimated cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan exceeds $6.4 trillion, underscoring the heavy toll that prolonged engagements take on the U.S. economy. With rising inflation and concerns over domestic issues such as healthcare and education, a significant portion of the electorate may prefer policies that prioritize investment at home. Trump’s platform, promising to avoid costly foreign entanglements, might resonate with voters concerned about these domestic issues.

The Appeal of ‘America First’
Trump’s “America First” approach has also captured the attention of voters who believe the U.S. should focus on strengthening itself before engaging abroad. By promising to “end every single international crisis” the current administration has, in his view, worsened, Trump taps into a narrative that the U.S. should prioritize its own stability and prosperity. However, critics argue that while his anti-war stance may sound appealing, his track record, which includes escalating tensions with Iran and initiating withdrawal plans from global institutions, remains controversial.

Harris’ Record on Foreign Policy
Vice President Kamala Harris, who has voiced strong support for Ukraine in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion, has been portrayed by Trump as willing to escalate military engagements abroad. Harris has actively backed the Biden administration’s efforts to provide military aid to Ukraine, arguing that such support is necessary to uphold international law and prevent autocratic governments from expanding their reach unchecked. Nevertheless, her stance has sometimes been perceived as “pro-war” by opponents who associate military aid with escalation. Harris herself, however, has consistently affirmed her commitment to diplomacy, emphasizing the importance of coalition-building and multilateral efforts.

Debate over Ukraine
Trump’s criticism of Harris and the Biden administration on Ukraine positions him as the more peace-oriented candidate, suggesting he could end the conflict by forcing negotiations. While this promise is attractive to war-weary Americans, foreign policy experts have expressed skepticism about its feasibility. A swift resolution to the Ukraine conflict would likely require concessions that Kyiv is unwilling to make, and pressuring Ukraine into such terms could risk long-term instability in the region.

Harris vs. Trump on Military Engagements
Harris has not explicitly advocated for direct U.S. involvement in conflicts, but her support for military assistance, especially in Ukraine, differentiates her from Trump’s vision of non-intervention. Despite Trump’s claims, Harris has not proposed sending American troops to Ukraine or escalating direct involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts. Instead, her approach leans toward maintaining U.S. alliances and supporting partners in defense, not active warfare.

The Role of Foreign Policy in U.S. Elections
Foreign policy often ranks below domestic issues, like the economy and healthcare, in voter priorities. However, the impact of global events, such as the Ukraine-Russia war and recent Middle East tensions, has brought foreign policy back into the limelight. As Trump frequently claims he could end the Ukraine conflict within “24 hours” if re-elected, he has shifted attention toward international issues, framing them as integral to America’s future stability.

Comparing 2024 to Previous Elections
Trump’s 2016 election campaign relied heavily on promises to withdraw from “endless wars,” a stance that resonated with many voters. However, the 2024 election landscape differs in several respects. Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, while chaotic, did fulfill a long-promised aim to end U.S. involvement in the war. Nevertheless, Trump’s continued anti-war rhetoric may have renewed appeal amid rising global tensions, especially for undecided voters concerned about the possibility of further entanglements under Harris and the Biden administration.

Global Crises and the American Electorate
Issues such as the conflict in Ukraine, U.S.-China relations, and tensions in the Middle East shape public perceptions of the risks associated with foreign policy. As Trump frames the current administration as one that “supports other people’s wars,” he positions himself as the candidate who will prioritize American safety over interventionist ambitions. This narrative could resonate in states with large veteran populations and those feeling the economic pinch of rising defense spending.

The Foreign Policy Battle in 2024

Trump’s promise not to entangle the U.S. in foreign wars is an appealing proposition for many Americans, especially given the country’s historical weariness from past conflicts. His platform aligns with a significant portion of the electorate that prioritizes domestic stability over global intervention. However, Trump’s rhetoric against Kamala Harris’ approach oversimplifies the realities of modern foreign policy, where decisions on military aid or strategic alliances are rarely as binary as he portrays.

Harris, meanwhile, has emphasized a diplomatic approach to foreign policy but has also committed to defending democratic nations under threat, as seen in her support for Ukraine. Her stance may resonate with voters who value international alliances and see a stronger U.S. presence on the global stage as essential to national security.

As the election approaches, it is likely that Trump’s anti-war rhetoric and Harris’ defense-oriented stance will continue to influence public opinion, potentially impacting key battleground states. While foreign policy may not dominate the election as a standalone issue, its implications for economic stability, national security, and U.S. global standing could profoundly affect the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.

References

  1. Poll: Americans’ Views on Foreign Conflicts – Pew Research Center. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org.
  2. Costs of Post-9/11 Wars – Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University. Retrieved from https://watson.brown.edu.
  3. Analysis of U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine – Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org.
  4. Kamala Harris’ Position on International Alliances – U.S. Department of State. Retrieved from https://www.state.gov.
  5. Trump’s Foreign Policy Positions – Trump Campaign Archive. Retrieved from https://www.trumpcampaignarchive.org.
Wasim Qadri
Wasim Qadrihttp://wasimqadriblog.wordpress.com/
Waseem Shahzad Qadri, Islamabad based Senior Journalist, TV Show Host, Media Trainer, can be follow on twitter @jaranwaliya

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