Think Tank Report: Turkiye, Trump, and the Syrian Crisis

The Syrian uprising has been a focal point of geopolitical contention since its inception, with various actors accused of playing behind-the-scenes roles. Among these, Turkiye stands out as a contentious figure, with former U.S. President Donald Trump labeling the Syrian upheaval as a “handiwork” of Turkiye.

Syrian Uprising

The Syrian uprising began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring, a wave of pro-democracy protests that swept across the Middle East. Initially peaceful, the demonstrations quickly escalated into a brutal civil war, drawing in regional and global powers. Over time, the conflict evolved into a complex web of alliances and enmities, with groups like the YPG (People’s Protection Units), HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), and others playing pivotal roles.

Turkiye’s Involvement:

Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has strongly denied accusations of orchestrating a “takeover” in Syria. In a recent interview, Fidan emphasized that Turkiye’s involvement is driven by solidarity with the Syrian people rather than domination. He pointed to the YPG as a significant threat, citing its ties to the PKK, a designated terrorist organization.

Despite these denials, Turkiye’s actions, including military operations against Kurdish forces and support for certain factions within Syria, have fueled speculation about its broader ambitions. Turkiye’s recognition of the new administration in Damascus and its call for the delisting of HTS from the terrorism list further complicate its narrative.

Why Does Donald Trump Consider Turkiye Responsible?

Donald Trump’s assertion that Turkiye masterminded an “unfriendly takeover” in Syria is rooted in Turkiye’s assertive policies in the region. Turkiye’s military campaigns, particularly against Kurdish forces, and its influence over factions like HTS have been interpreted as attempts to reshape Syria’s political landscape.

Trump’s praise for Turkiye’s “smart” strategies underscores his perception of Ankara as a decisive actor capable of altering Syria’s trajectory. However, this view has been met with skepticism, with critics arguing that it oversimplifies the multifaceted nature of the conflict.

How Do European Countries View Turkiye’s Role?

European countries have adopted a cautious stance toward Turkiye’s involvement in Syria. Key concerns include:

1. Refugee Management: Turkiye’s hosting of millions of Syrian refugees has been both a humanitarian effort and a point of leverage in negotiations with the EU.
2. Counterterrorism: Europe remains wary of Turkiye’s associations with groups like HTS, which it still designates as a terrorist organization.
3. Geopolitical Rivalries: Turkiye’s actions are viewed as part of a broader strategy to assert dominance in the region, raising alarms in European capitals.

Will the Uprising Dislodge Russia and Iran from Syria?

Russia and Iran have been steadfast allies of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, providing military and economic support. However, the ongoing instability and Turkiye’s maneuvers pose challenges to their influence. Key factors include:

• Russian Vulnerability: The protracted conflict strains Russia’s resources, especially amid its involvement in Ukraine and economic sanctions.
• Iran’s Constraints: Domestic unrest and international isolation limit Iran’s ability to sustain its commitments in Syria.

While the uprising alone may not oust Russia and Iran, it complicates their strategic calculus, potentially weakening their grip over time.

Effects on the Middle East

The Syrian conflict’s repercussions are far-reaching, impacting:

1. Regional Stability: Neighboring countries like Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq face spillover effects, including refugee crises and security threats.
2. Power Dynamics: Turkiye’s actions challenge traditional power structures, prompting reactions from Gulf states and Egypt.
3. Terrorism and Extremism: The conflict’s fragmentation has created fertile ground for extremist groups, complicating counterterrorism efforts.

The Broader Implications

The Syrian uprising underscores the challenges of navigating complex geopolitical landscapes. For the EU, the crisis highlights the need for:

• Unified Policies: A cohesive approach to managing refugee flows and engaging with regional actors.
• Human Rights Advocacy: Supporting Syrian civilians while addressing concerns about Turkiye’s actions.
• Strategic Alliances: Balancing relations with Turkiye, Russia, and Iran to maintain influence in the Middle East.

Turkiye’s role in the Syrian uprising remains a topic of intense debate. While Ankara denies ambitions of domination, its actions suggest a strategic intent to shape Syria’s future. The crisis’s ripple effects on Europe, the Middle East, and global power dynamics underscore the urgency of coordinated international efforts to address its root causes and consequences.

References

1. Al Jazeera. “Interview with Hakan Fidan on Turkiye’s Role in Syria.” Al Jazeera.
2. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). “Syrian Refugee Crisis Update.” UNHCR.
3. European Union External Action Service. “EU Policy on Syria.” EU External Action.
4. Human Rights Watch. “Syria: Impact of the Uprising on Regional Stability.” HRW.
5. Reuters. “Analysis: Turkiye’s Geopolitical Strategies in Syria.” Reuters.