Türkiye’s influence on the evolving landscape of Syria continues to be pivotal, particularly in the aftermath of the recent political upheaval following Bashar al-Assad’s ouster. This article explores the multidimensional role Türkiye is playing in shaping Syria’s future, addressing key questions around its objectives, alliances, and implications for the Syrian people.
Türkiye’s Vision for Change in Syria
A New Order in Northern Syria
Türkiye envisions a Syria free of the Kurdish YPG militia, which it perceives as a direct extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made Türkiye’s stance clear: Kurdish militias must disarm or face elimination. Ankara has long sought to establish a safe zone in northern Syria, ostensibly to secure its borders and resettle millions of Syrian refugees currently residing in Türkiye.
Stabilization and Reconstruction
Türkiye aims to foster stability in northern Syria by supporting local governance structures aligned with its interests. Through its backing of the Syrian National Army (SNA) and involvement in local governance initiatives, Ankara seeks to create a buffer zone that limits the influence of both Kurdish factions and remnants of the Assad regime.
Türkiye’s Main Objectives in Syria
1. Countering Kurdish Militias
Eliminating the YPG and preventing the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region near its border remains Türkiye’s primary objective. Ankara fears that a Kurdish-controlled area in Syria could embolden separatist sentiments within its own Kurdish population.
2. Establishing a Buffer Zone
Türkiye’s proposal for a safe zone aims to address both security concerns and the refugee crisis. By resettling Syrian refugees in this zone, Ankara seeks to reduce domestic pressures related to the refugee influx while maintaining influence in northern Syria.
3. Influencing Syria’s Political Transition
Ankara is positioning itself as a key player in shaping post-Assad Syria. It advocates for a transitional government inclusive of opposition groups it supports, while marginalizing factions aligned with Kurdish or extremist ideologies.
4. Economic Leverage in Reconstruction
Türkiye seeks to capitalize on reconstruction efforts in Syria, aiming to extend its economic reach by participating in rebuilding infrastructure, trade networks, and energy resources.
Türkiye’s Relationship with the U.S. and Europe
Strained Alliances
Türkiye’s approach in Syria has been a point of contention with its NATO allies. The U.S., which supports the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – dominated by the YPG – has repeatedly clashed with Türkiye over its military operations in northern Syria. European nations have also criticized Türkiye’s incursions, viewing them as destabilizing and counterproductive to broader peace efforts.
Pragmatic Cooperation
Despite these disagreements, Türkiye has managed to maintain a level of pragmatic cooperation with the U.S. and Europe. Western powers recognize Türkiye’s strategic importance as a NATO ally and its role in controlling migration flows from Syria to Europe. As such, Ankara has used its geopolitical leverage to extract concessions, such as financial aid and political support for refugee management.
The Direction of the Conflict
Fragmented Power Dynamics
The fall of Assad has left Syria’s political landscape fragmented, with multiple factions vying for control. While Türkiye-backed Syrian rebels have gained ground, Kurdish factions and extremist groups continue to pose challenges.
Persistent External Interventions
Foreign actors like Russia, Iran, and Israel remain deeply involved in Syria. Türkiye must navigate these complex dynamics while asserting its own interests, which often puts it at odds with other stakeholders.
Perspectives of the Syrian People
Aspirations for Stability
Syrians, weary from over a decade of conflict, prioritize stability and the rebuilding of their country. While Türkiye’s initiatives, such as creating a safe zone, offer some hope, concerns persist about Ankara’s long-term intentions and its selective approach to governance in the areas it controls.
Concerns About Sovereignty
Many Syrians view Türkiye’s presence as a double-edged sword. While it has brought relative stability to certain regions, it has also raised questions about Syria’s sovereignty and the implications of external control over local governance.
Challenges Ahead
Reconstruction Amid Sanctions
Rebuilding Syria is an uphill battle. International sanctions, particularly the Caesar Act, continue to cripple Syria’s economy, making foreign investment and reconstruction nearly impossible. Türkiye faces the challenge of mobilizing resources and international support to facilitate meaningful rebuilding efforts.
Balancing Old and New Leadership
The transition to a new Syrian leadership presents another hurdle. While Türkiye has supported opposition factions, integrating remnants of the old regime into the reconstruction process remains contentious. Alienating certain groups could reignite tensions and hinder progress.
Managing Refugee Resettlement
Türkiye’s plan to resettle refugees in northern Syria has drawn criticism for potentially altering the region’s demographic balance. Ensuring voluntary, safe, and dignified returns will be essential to maintaining stability and avoiding further conflicts.
The Path Forward
Inclusive Governance
For Syria to achieve lasting peace and stability, an inclusive government that represents all factions, ethnicities, and communities is crucial. Türkiye’s role in facilitating such a transition will be critical but must align with the aspirations of the Syrian people rather than Ankara’s geopolitical interests.
International Collaboration
Türkiye cannot rebuild Syria alone. Coordinated efforts involving the United Nations, European Union, and other global actors are essential for reconstruction and rehabilitation. Transparency and accountability must guide these efforts to ensure aid reaches those who need it most.
Addressing Root Causes
Beyond military solutions, addressing the root causes of instability, such as poverty, lack of education, and political disenfranchisement, will be vital. Empowering civil society and fostering grassroots initiatives can play a transformative role in Syria’s recovery.
Türkiye’s role in shaping Syria’s future is both significant and complex. While its objectives focus on security, influence, and reconstruction, the path it chooses will have profound implications for Syria’s sovereignty, stability, and the well-being of its people. To truly shape a prosperous and unified Syria, Türkiye must balance its strategic interests with the aspirations of the Syrian people and the need for collaborative international efforts.
References
- Le Monde – Interview with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- United Nations – Reports on Syria’s Reconstruction Needs
- Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Official Statements on Syria
- BBC News – Coverage of Turkish Military Operations in Syria
- France24 – Analysis of Syrian Political Transition
- Al Jazeera – Refugee Resettlement Challenges in Syria
- Human Rights Watch – Reports on Civil Society in Syria
