Can US-Russia Talks in Riyadh End the Ukraine Conflict?

In a significant diplomatic development, high-level delegations from the United States and Russia have commenced talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, aiming to restore bilateral relations and explore potential resolutions to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The U.S. delegation is led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff.

The Russian side includes Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, and Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF). Notably, representatives from Ukraine and European Union member states are absent from these discussions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed dissatisfaction with the exclusion, stating that any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukrainian participation are unproductive.

Why Did America and Russia Agree on Saudi Hosting?

The selection of Saudi Arabia as the venue for these pivotal talks underscores the Kingdom’s evolving role in global diplomacy. Several factors contributed to this choice:

1. Neutral Ground: Saudi Arabia maintains diplomatic relations with both the U.S. and Russia, positioning it as a neutral territory conducive to open dialogue.

2. Strategic Location: Situated at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, Saudi Arabia offers a geographically strategic meeting point for international delegations.

3. Diplomatic Ambitions: Under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia has been actively seeking to elevate its diplomatic profile on the world stage. Hosting such high-stakes negotiations aligns with its vision to be a central player in global affairs

4. Energy Influence: As a leading oil producer, Saudi Arabia holds significant sway over global energy markets. Its involvement can have substantial implications for the economic dimensions of the U.S.-Russia relationship.

The Global Role of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s influence extends beyond its oil reserves. Key aspects of its global role include:

1. Economic Powerhouse: With approximately 17% of the world’s proven petroleum reserves, Saudi Arabia is among the top 20 export and import markets globally. Its non-oil exports reach around 90 countries, averaging six billion dollars annually

2. Religious Significance: As the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites, Mecca and Medina, Saudi Arabia holds a unique position in the Muslim world, influencing religious and cultural matters.

3. Geopolitical Mediator: The Kingdom has increasingly taken on roles as a mediator in regional conflicts and international disputes, leveraging its strategic alliances and economic clout to facilitate dialogue.

The Intersection of Global Oil Trade and Politics

The nexus between energy markets and international politics is evident in this context:

1. Economic Leverage: Saudi Arabia’s oil production decisions can influence global prices, affecting economies worldwide. This economic leverage translates into political influence, as seen in its ability to coordinate production cuts through OPEC+, impacting global fuel prices

2. Diplomatic Currency: Control over energy resources allows Saudi Arabia to wield significant diplomatic power, using oil agreements and partnerships as tools to forge and maintain international alliances.

3. Stabilizing Force: As a leading member of OPEC+, Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in efforts to stabilize global oil markets, which has direct implications for the economic stability of oil-dependent nations.

Prospects for U.S.-Russia Relations

The Riyadh talks represent a potential turning point in U.S.-Russia relations:

1. Diplomatic Reset: Both nations have expressed a desire to “restore the entire complex of Russian-American relations,” indicating a willingness to address longstanding issues.

2. Conflict Resolution: Discussions are expected to explore pathways to resolve the Ukraine conflict, with Russia emphasizing the need for security guarantees and recognition of territorial realities

3. Economic Cooperation: The inclusion of Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, suggests that economic collaboration and investment opportunities may also be on the agenda

Reactions from Ukraine and Europe

The exclusion of Ukraine and European countries from the talks has elicited varied responses:

1. Ukrainian Concerns: President Zelenskyy has voiced strong objections to negotiations occurring without Ukrainian representation, asserting that such talks lack legitimacy and are unlikely to yield acceptable outcomes for Ukraine

2. European Discontent: European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have expressed unease over being sidelined, fearing that their strategic interests and regional security concerns may not be adequately represented.

3. Internal Divisions: Within Europe, there is a split regarding the appropriate response, with debates over the potential deployment of peacekeepers and the extent of military support to Ukraine

European Participation in the Meeting

Despite their vested interests, European nations are notably absent from the Riyadh talks:

1. U.S.-Russia Focus: The bilateral nature of the discussions suggests a strategic decision to limit participation to the primary actors, potentially to streamline negotiations and address core issues directly.

2. Future Inclusion: While excluded from the initial talks, there is potential for European involvement in subsequent discussions, especially if preliminary agreements necessitate broader international support or implementation.

3. Diplomatic Outreach: European countries may engage in parallel diplomatic efforts to ensure their perspectives and interests are considered in any forthcoming agreements.

The initiation of U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia marks a significant moment in international diplomacy, reflecting shifting alliances and the complex interplay of geopolitical interests. Saudi Arabia’s role as host underscores its growing influence on the global stage, leveraging its economic power and