The Middle East stands at a pivotal juncture, with President Donald Trump’s second term sparking renewed debate over whether his leadership can deliver lasting peace to a region long plagued by conflict. Trump’s unorthodox approach to diplomacy, characterized by pragmatic deal-making and bold initiatives, has both supporters and critics speculating on his ability to resolve entrenched issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, tensions with Iran, and regional instability.
Trump’s Diplomatic Track Record: A Foundation for Peace?
Trump’s first term (2017–2021) showcased a foreign policy that prioritized deal-making over traditional diplomacy. The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states (UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco), marked a significant achievement, bypassing the Palestinian issue to focus on regional economic and security cooperation. In his second term, Trump has continued this approach, engaging directly with contentious actors like Hamas to secure hostage releases, such as that of Edan Alexander, and brokering a ceasefire with the Houthis in Yemen. These moves suggest a willingness to tackle complex issues head-on, prioritizing U.S. strategic interests while seeking tangible outcomes.
However, Trump’s earlier Middle East peace plan, unveiled in 2020, was widely criticized for favoring Israel and sidelining Palestinian aspirations. The plan proposed a limited Palestinian state with significant Israeli control, including annexation of the Jordan Valley and recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s undivided capital. Palestinian leaders, including President Mahmoud Abbas, rejected it as a “conspiracy deal,” and it failed to gain traction. Can Trump pivot from this Israel-centric approach to a more balanced strategy that addresses Palestinian statehood and regional demands for a two-state solution?
The Two-State Solution: A Prerequisite for Peace?
The Arab world has consistently emphasized the two-state solution as a cornerstone for peace, a position reinforced by the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative (API). The API demands Israel’s withdrawal from territories occupied since 1967 and the establishment of a Palestinian state in exchange for diplomatic normalization with Arab states. Recent developments, including the Palestine Summit in March 2025, underscore Arab unity on this issue. Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE rejected Trump’s earlier proposal to displace Palestinians from Gaza, instead advocating for Gaza’s reconstruction and a return to ceasefire negotiations.
A critical opportunity lies in Palestine’s potential admission to the United Nations as its 194th member state, slated for discussion at the High-level International Conference on Palestine in June 2025. The vast majority of UN member states support this move, as evidenced by recent General Assembly resolutions. However, U.S. veto power in the Security Council remains a significant hurdle. Arab leaders have urged Trump to lift this veto, arguing that Palestinian statehood is essential for regional stability and economic development. If Trump were to endorse this, it could unlock unprecedented investment and cooperation from Gulf states, aligning with his economic priorities.
Yet, challenges abound. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government staunchly opposes Palestinian statehood, prioritizing continued military operations in Gaza and the West Bank to prevent Hamas’s resurgence and block statehood efforts. Netanyahu’s coalition, bolstered by far-right ultranationalists, views territorial expansion and Palestinian displacement as strategic imperatives, a stance that aligns with Trump’s controversial 2025 proposal to “take over” Gaza and relocate its residents. This plan, condemned by allies and adversaries alike as a violation of international law, risks derailing ceasefire talks and escalating regional tensions.
Navigating the Iran Conundrum
Iran remains a pivotal player in Middle East stability. Trump’s first term saw heightened tensions after he withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), imposing “maximum pressure” sanctions. In 2025, however, Trump has signaled a willingness to negotiate, with talks in Oman entering theirfourth round. His openness to meeting Iran’s president and pursuing a “verified nuclear peace agreement” suggests a pragmatic shift. A deal with Iran could reduce its support for proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, creating space for broader peace efforts.
However, Netanyahu’s government seeks to draw the U.S. into direct confrontation with Iran, viewing its nuclear program and regional influence as existential threats. Trump’s recent airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and warnings to Iran indicate he may balance diplomacy with military posturing to appease Israel and domestic supporters. Navigating this delicate balance will be crucial to avoiding a wider conflict that could undermine peace initiatives.
Economic Development as a Peace Catalyst
Trump’s vision for the Middle East often emphasizes economic transformation, as seen in his Gaza “Riviera” proposal, which envisioned a rebuilt enclave as a tourism and job hub. While the displacement aspect of this plan drew widespread condemnation, the focus on economic development aligns with Arab states’ priorities. Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan, endorsed at the Palestine Summit, emphasizes stabilizing the region without displacing Palestinians, a model that could attract Gulf investment.
A prosperous Middle East, with Gaza and the West Bank integrated into regional trade networks, could incentivize peace. Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. ally, has conditioned normalization with Israel on Palestinian statehood, offering significant economic and strategic leverage. Trump’s desire for Gulf investments, highlighted during his May 2025 visit to the region, could motivate him to prioritize a two-state solution to unlock these opportunities.
Fresh Angles: Unexplored Pathways to Peace
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Leveraging Saudi Arabia’s Influence: Trump has entrusted Saudi Arabia with a prominent role in regional diplomacy, including Russia-Ukraine talks. Riyadh’s leadership in advocating for the API and Gaza reconstruction positions it as a potential mediator to bridge U.S., Israeli, and Palestinian interests. A Saudi-led initiative, backed by U.S. diplomatic weight, could reframe the peace process.
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Engaging Hamas Diplomatically: Trump’s direct negotiations with Hamas, a departure from past U.S. policy, have yielded results like hostage releases. Reports suggest Hamas is open to ceding political control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (PA) and discussing disarmament as part of a broader peace plan. Integrating Hamas into negotiations, while contentious, could address governance challenges in Gaza and reduce violence.
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Countering Netanyahu’s Isolation: Israel’s growing international isolation, with even allies like the UK opposing its actions, provides Trump leverage to pressure Netanyahu. By aligning with global support for the two-state solution, Trump could position himself as a statesman, enhancing his legacy while countering Israel’s unilateral moves.
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Regional “Grand Bargain”: Experts propose a comprehensive deal that links Palestinian statehood, Israeli-Saudi normalization, and curbs on Iran’s militancy, backed by U.S. and Arab guarantees. A referendum allowing Palestinians and Israelis to vote on such an agreement could legitimize it and foster public buy-in.
Challenges and Risks
Trump’s peace prospects face significant obstacles:
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Israeli Resistance: Netanyahu’s coalition, backed by ultranationalists, is unlikely to accept Palestinian statehood or territorial concessions.
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Fragile Ceasefires: The January 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire collapsed in March, with Israel resuming military operations, highlighting the difficulty of sustaining truces.
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Domestic U.S. Politics: Trump’s pro-Israel base and donors may limit his flexibility, as seen in his initial Gaza takeover proposal.
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Palestinian Divisions: The PA’s weakened legitimacy and Hamas’s control over Gaza complicate governance and negotiations.
A Historic Opportunity?
Trump’s pragmatic diplomacy, coupled with Arab unity and global support for the two-state solution, presents a rare opportunity to advance Middle East peace. By endorsing Palestine’s UN admission and leveraging economic incentives, Trump could unlock regional stability and a lasting legacy. However, overcoming Israeli resistance, sustaining ceasefires, and balancing U.S. interests with international law will require deft leadership. While posts on X reflect polarized sentiments—some praising Trump’s boldness, others condemning his alignment with Israel’s annexationist policies—the path to peace hinges on pragmatic compromises that prioritize Palestinian self-determination and regional cooperation.
As the High-level International Conference on Palestine approaches, the world watches to see if Trump can transcend past failures and deliver a transformative deal. The stakes—regional stability, economic prosperity, and millions of lives—could not be higher.
