As the world watches the buildup to the G7 Summit scheduled for June 15-17, 2025, in Kananaskis, Canada, two key nations—Japan and Canada—find themselves in a delicate waiting game. The summit, a gathering of the world’s leading industrialized democracies, has become a critical juncture for addressing U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and his pointed economic targets. With Trump’s administration imposing significant tariffs on Japanese exports and threatening Canada with annexation rhetoric alongside hefty duties, both countries are strategically holding off direct confrontations, eyeing the G7 platform to negotiate or challenge these measures.
The Tariff Tightrope: Japan’s Strategic Delay
Japan, a long-standing U.S. ally, faces a 24% tariff on its exports to the U.S., paused until early July 2025, alongside a persistent 10% universal rate and a 25% duty on cars—sectors vital to its export-driven economy. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has signaled a calculated approach, aiming to advance tariff talks with the U.S. for a breakthrough at the G7 Summit. His recent 45-minute phone call with Trump on Friday, May 23, 2025, and the third round of negotiations led by tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa in Washington on Friday, May 23, underscore this strategy. Ishiba highlighted progress in trade expansion, nontariff measures, and economic security, yet Akazawa’s cautious stance—“nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”—reflects Japan’s reluctance to concede without a comprehensive deal.
This delay tactic serves multiple purposes. First, it leverages the G7 Summit’s multilateral pressure to extract concessions from Trump, who has shown interest in Japanese cooperation in shipbuilding and Arctic icebreaker technology—areas where Japan holds a competitive edge. Second, it avoids domestic political fallout ahead of Japan’s upper house elections in July, where Ishiba’s ruling coalition risks losing its majority. By waiting, Japan seeks to balance Trump’s demands with national interests, raising a critical question: Will the G7 Summit force Trump to reconsider his tariff policies, or will Japan face economic pressure to capitulate?
Canada’s Defensive Stance: Beyond Tariffs to Sovereignty
Canada’s wait for the G7 Summit is equally strategic, though laced with deeper existential concerns. Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian exports, coupled with his provocative “51st state” rhetoric, has strained bilateral ties to an all-time low. The G7, hosted on Canadian soil, offers a home advantage to rally allies—Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the EU—against U.S. economic aggression. Canadian leaders see the summit as a chance to coordinate a unified response, especially as Trump’s tariffs threaten industries like steel, aluminum, and automotive manufacturing.
Beyond economics, Canada’s delay addresses Trump’s annexation musings, which have sparked patriotic backlash and calls for trade diversification. The G7 platform could amplify Canada’s voice, questioning Trump’s rationale for targeting a NATO ally. Is this economic coercion a negotiation tactic, or a sign of broader U.S. disengagement from traditional alliances? Canada’s wait might also hinge on internal political transitions, with potential leadership changes influencing its approach, adding another layer of complexity.
Multilateral Pressure vs. Bilateral Bargaining
The G7 Summit presents a unique opportunity for Japan and Canada to shift from bilateral vulnerability to multilateral strength. With Trump’s administration pushing allies to serve U.S. interests—evident in his paused tariffs and ongoing negotiations—both nations could use the summit to propose joint economic initiatives, like Japan’s shipbuilding offer, to counterbalance U.S. demands. However, Trump’s preference for bilateral deals, as seen in his prioritization of Japan’s negotiations, might undermine G7 unity, especially if he leverages the summit for photo-ops rather than substantive agreements.
This dynamic raises a pivotal question: Can Japan and Canada harness G7 solidarity to challenge Trump’s tariffs, or will his “America First” agenda dominate, forcing bilateral concessions? The summit’s outcome could redefine global trade norms, particularly if Trump’s tariff threats extend beyond the current 90-day pause.
Political and Economic Risks
For Japan, the risk lies in domestic instability. Ishiba’s potential ouster post-elections could derail negotiations, leaving Japan vulnerable to Trump’s 24% tariff reinstatement. Economically, analysts estimate a 0.8%-1.8% GDP hit, amplifying the urgency to secure a G7 deal. Canada, meanwhile, faces economic retaliation and diplomatic isolation if Trump perceives G7 resistance as defiance. The risk of a trade war escalation looms large, especially if Canada pushes back on annexation rhetoric, prompting questions about Trump’s willingness to escalate beyond tariffs.
Confronting Trump: The Questions That Matter
As the G7 Summit nears, Japan and Canada face a defining moment to confront Trump directly. Japan might ask: Why target an ally’s automotive sector with 25% tariffs, ignoring decades of security cooperation? Canada could challenge: What justifies threatening a sovereign nation with annexation and tariffs, disrupting a $2 billion daily trade relationship? These questions could expose the inconsistency in Trump’s policies, forcing a reckoning on whether his tariffs are economic strategy or political posturing.
A Summit of Stakes
Japan and Canada’s wait for the G7 Summit is a high-stakes gamble, blending economic strategy with political survival. With fresh data from May 2025 negotiations and Trump’s tariff pauses, the summit could either forge a new trade framework or deepen divisions. The world watches as these nations navigate Trump’s targets, poised to demand answers and assert their place in a shifting global order. Will the G7 unite against tariffs, or will Trump’s influence prevail? The answers lie in Kananaskis this June.
