As Pakistan commemorates the 27th anniversary of Youm-e-Takbeer, the landmark nuclear tests of 1998, the Arms Control and Disarmament Centre (ACDC) at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) hosted a seminar titled “The Future of Deterrence and Emerging Challenges.” The event, featuring Lt. General (R) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai and other experts, shed light on Pakistan’s evolving deterrence strategy in response to a rapidly changing South Asian security landscape.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Deterrence:
Pakistan’s nuclear capability, solidified in 1998, remains the bedrock of its national security. Lt. General (R) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, Advisor to the National Command Authority (NCA), emphasized at the seminar that Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD), while rooted in Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD), encompasses a robust tri-services inventory of nuclear weapons across strategic, operational, and tactical levels, covering ranges up to 2,750 km to counter India’s vast geography. This capability ensures that “no space exists for aggression below the nuclear threshold,” as stated by Ambassador Sohail Mahmood, Director General of ISSI. The nuclear arsenal, combined with a stringent command and control system, has effectively deterred full-scale war with India, despite tensions in 2019 and 2025.
The New Normal:
A defining shift in South Asia’s strategic environment, as highlighted by Lt. Gen. Kidwai, is the reversal of air superiority in favor of Pakistan. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF), leveraging advanced Chinese technology and multi-domain tactics, demonstrated dominance in the 2019 Balakot-Rajouri skirmish and the 2025 Azad Kashmir conflict, downing Indian aircraft and exposing vulnerabilities in India’s air defense systems. This “new normal” establishes Pakistan’s conventional deterrence as a critical complement to its nuclear arsenal, ensuring a “Quid Pro Quo Plus” response to any aggression, as promised by Field Marshal Asim Munir.
Emerging Challenges in South Asia’s Strategic Landscape
The seminar highlighted several emerging challenges to Pakistan’s deterrence strategy:
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- India’s Aggressive Posture: Amb. Zamir Akram noted India’s Hindutva-driven policies, false flag operations, and hybrid warfare tactics, such as supporting proxies like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which undermine regional stability.
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- Disruptive Technologies: Air Commodore (R) Khalid Banuri and Dr. Salma Malik discussed the impact of AI, hypersonic missiles, cyber warfare, and space-based capabilities, which introduce speed, precision, and asymmetry into conflicts. These technologies challenge the credibility of deterrence and require Pakistan to adapt.
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- India’s Military Modernization: India’s pursuit of MIRVs, sea-based deterrents, and counterforce strategies, coupled with its warfighting doctrines, poses significant threats to strategic stability.
Pakistan’s Response: Full Spectrum Deterrence and Technological Integration
Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence integrates nuclear and conventional capabilities across land (Army Strategic Force Command), sea (Naval Strategic Force Command), and air (Air Force Strategic Force Command). Lt. Gen. Kidwai emphasized the incorporation of emerging technologies, such as AI and hypersonics, to strengthen Pakistan’s nuclear program and maintain deterrence stability. The PAF’s advanced tactics and Chinese-supported technology have shifted the balance of air power, ensuring Pakistan’s ability to counter India’s conventional superiority.
Diplomatic Pathways for Stability
Speakers at the seminar stressed the importance of diplomacy in maintaining regional stability. Lt. Gen. Kidwai highlighted President Trump’s diplomatic initiative as an opportunity for India and Pakistan to address conflicts, particularly over Kashmir, through dialogue. Dr. Salma Malik advocated for multilateral dialogue and strategic lawfare to counter India’s destabilizing actions and normative erosion. Pakistan’s responsible nuclear conduct, including its impeccable safety and security regime, strengthens its case for international cooperation.
Peaceful Applications of Nuclear Technology
Beyond deterrence, Pakistan’s nuclear program supports peaceful applications, such as operating 19 Atomic Energy Cancer Hospitals and enhancing agricultural yields, contributing to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These efforts underscore Pakistan’s commitment to responsible nuclear stewardship and socio-economic development.
The Role of Strategic Partnerships
Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China, highlighted by Lt. Gen. Kidwai, has bolstered its deterrence capabilities through advanced technology and military support. This alliance, coupled with Pakistan’s rejection of U.S. allegations about its missile capabilities, positions Pakistan favorably in the evolving geopolitical landscape.
A Robust and Adaptive Deterrence Strategy
The future of Pakistan’s deterrence lies in its ability to maintain a robust nuclear and conventional arsenal while adapting to emerging technologies and geopolitical challenges. The PAF’s air superiority, Full Spectrum Deterrence, and strategic partnerships ensure Pakistan’s sovereignty and regional stability. By combining military strength with diplomatic engagement, Pakistan aims to foster peace and counter India’s aggressive posturing, securing a stable future for South Asia.
