As global tensions mount, the simultaneous escalation of Russian military actions in Ukraine and Chinese assertiveness toward Taiwan have raised questions about coordinated strategies among Russia, China, and Iran, particularly in the context of the ongoing Iran-US-Israel conflict.
Context: A Multipolar World Under Strain
The year 2025 has witnessed heightened geopolitical friction, with Russia intensifying its military campaign in Ukraine, China increasing pressure on Taiwan through military drills and economic coercion, and the Iran-US-Israel conflict escalating after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025. These events are not isolated but part of a broader struggle for influence in a multipolar world. Russia, China, and Iran—often described as an “adversary entente”—share a common interest in challenging U.S.-led Western dominance, creating a backdrop where their actions may be strategically aligned, if not explicitly coordinated.
The Iran-US-Israel Conflict as a Catalyst
The Iran-US-Israel conflict, intensified by Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites starting June 13, 2025, and subsequent U.S. involvement, has reshaped global alliances. Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israel have heightened fears of a broader Middle East war, with potential global repercussions. Russia and China, both strategic partners of Iran, have condemned these attacks as violations of international law, positioning themselves as advocates for de-escalation while leveraging the crisis to advance their own agendas.
Why Russia Is Escalating in Ukraine
Diverting Western Attention
Russia’s intensified drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, particularly since mid-2025, coincide with the Middle East crisis, suggesting a strategic opportunity to exploit Western distraction. Analysts note that the Iran-Israel conflict has shifted global focus from Ukraine, reducing Western military aid and diplomatic pressure on Russia. For instance, Russian analyst Ruslan Pukhov highlighted that a Middle East war could “contribute to the final reorientation of U.S. military assistance to Israel,” leaving Ukraine with fewer resources. This aligns with posts on X suggesting Russia may be capitalizing on the U.S.’s preoccupation with Iran to advance its territorial gains in Ukraine.
Economic Benefits from Middle East Instability
The Iran-Israel conflict has driven oil prices upward, benefiting Russia’s economy, which relies heavily on energy exports. Higher oil prices alleviate Russia’s fiscal pressures, strained by Western sanctions since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This financial windfall allows Russia to sustain its war effort, including the production of Shahed drones, many of which are based on Iranian designs now manufactured domestically.
Strategic Partnership with Iran
Russia’s deepened ties with Iran, formalized through a January 2025 strategic partnership agreement, provide military and economic support for its Ukraine campaign. Iran has supplied Russia with drones and ballistic missiles, such as the Fath-360, enhancing Russia’s ability to strike Ukrainian targets. However, Russia’s reluctance to offer direct military support to Iran during the current conflict reflects its prioritization of Ukraine and its need to maintain relations with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which oppose a stronger Iran.
Geopolitical Posturing
President Vladimir Putin is leveraging the Middle East crisis to position Russia as a global power broker, offering to mediate Iran-Israel talks to improve relations with the U.S. and deflect pressure on Ukraine. This diplomatic maneuvering, however, is secondary to Russia’s goal of securing territorial gains in Ukraine while the West is distracted.
Why China Is Mounting Pressure on Taiwan
Testing U.S. Resolve
China’s increased military drills and economic coercion around Taiwan, particularly in 2025, are seen as tests of U.S. commitment to its allies amid the Middle East conflict. Posts on X speculate that China may view U.S. involvement in Iran as an opportunity to advance its Taiwan agenda, potentially even contemplating military action if the U.S. is overstretched. The U.S.’s deployment of resources to the Middle East could strain its Indo-Pacific capabilities, emboldening China to escalate pressure on Taiwan.
Economic and Energy Concerns
China, which imports 90% of Iran’s oil, is heavily invested in Middle East stability to secure its energy supply. The Iran-Israel conflict threatens disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which half of China’s oil imports pass. By escalating pressure on Taiwan, China may be signaling its readiness to assert regional dominance to deter disruptions in its energy supply chain, while also testing Western responses.
Strategic Alignment with Russia and Iran
China’s support for Iran, evidenced by its condemnation of U.S. and Israeli strikes and its role as Iran’s largest oil buyer, aligns with its broader anti-Western stance. This aligns with Russia’s interests, as both nations seek to counter U.S. influence through a multipolar world order. Joint naval exercises with Iran and Russia underscore this alignment, though China’s response to the Iran conflict has been largely rhetorical, prioritizing economic stability over military involvement.
Domestic and Regional Ambitions
Xi Jinping’s focus on Taiwan reflects domestic pressures to assert China’s sovereignty claims, reinforcing nationalistic narratives ahead of key political events like the 2027 Party Congress. Additionally, China’s outreach to Central Asian states, such as Kazakhstan, aims to secure energy and trade routes, reducing reliance on volatile Middle Eastern supplies. Escalating pressure on Taiwan serves as a distraction from domestic economic challenges and a means to project power regionally.
Why Russia and China Support Iran
Shared Anti-Western Ideology
Russia, China, and Iran share a common goal of undermining the U.S.-led liberal order, which they perceive as a threat to their authoritarian regimes. This ideological alignment drives their support for Iran, particularly in international forums like the UN Security Council, where they have proposed resolutions condemning U.S. and Israeli actions. Posts on X describe this as a “pre-WW3 alliance” aimed at countering Western dominance.
Economic Interdependence
China’s reliance on Iranian oil and Russia’s dependence on Iranian drones and missiles create mutual economic interests. China’s purchase of 90% of Iran’s oil exports bypasses Western sanctions, providing Tehran with a critical economic lifeline. Similarly, Iran’s military support bolsters Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, making Iran a valuable partner despite Russia’s limited capacity to reciprocate militarily.
Geopolitical Counterweight
Iran serves as a key counterweight to U.S. influence in the Middle East, aligning with Russia and China’s broader strategies to challenge Western hegemony. China’s 2023 mediation of a Saudi-Iran rapprochement highlighted its ambition to be a regional power broker, while Russia’s historical support for Iran’s nuclear program and military capabilities strengthens its anti-Western coalition.
Limited Military Commitment
Despite their support, both Russia and China are unlikely to provide direct military aid to Iran due to their own strategic priorities—Russia’s focus on Ukraine and China’s caution in the Indo-Pacific. Instead, their support is diplomatic and economic, aimed at preserving Iran’s regime without risking escalation that could harm their interests.
Are Russia and China Increasing Pressure on the West During the Iran War?
Opportunistic Escalation
The simultaneous escalation in Ukraine and Taiwan suggests Russia and China are exploiting the Iran conflict to overstretch Western resources. Russian analysts predict that U.S. military aid to Israel will reduce support for Ukraine, allowing Russia to intensify its offensive. Similarly, X posts speculate that China may seize the moment to advance on Taiwan, believing the U.S. cannot effectively fight on multiple fronts. This opportunistic behavior aligns with historical patterns where adversaries exploit U.S. distractions.
Diplomatic Leverage
Both nations are positioning themselves as mediators in the Iran-Israel conflict to gain diplomatic leverage. Putin’s offers to facilitate U.S.-Iran nuclear talks aim to reset U.S.-Russia relations on Moscow’s terms, while Xi Jinping’s calls for de-escalation seek to portray China as a responsible global actor. These efforts distract from their aggressive actions in Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively, while pressuring the West to engage diplomatically.
Economic Pressure
Rising oil prices due to Middle East instability benefit Russia’s war economy and indirectly pressure Western economies grappling with inflation. China’s continued oil purchases from Iran undermine Western sanctions, sustaining Iran’s regime and prolonging the conflict, which keeps Western focus divided.
Limits to Coordination
Despite appearances, Russia and China’s actions are not fully coordinated. Their cooperation is pragmatic, driven by shared interests rather than a formal alliance. Russia’s focus on Ukraine and China’s prioritization of Taiwan and economic stability limit their ability to support Iran militarily, suggesting their escalations are opportunistic rather than a unified strategy.
Broader Implications and Scenarios
Risk of Wider Conflict
The convergence of crises in Ukraine, Taiwan, and Iran raises the specter of a broader global conflict. Analysts warn that a U.S.-Iran war could embolden China to act on Taiwan or Russia to escalate in Ukraine, stretching Western military capabilities. The loss of Iran as an ally could weaken Russia’s anti-Western coalition, but it might also push Moscow to deepen ties with China, creating a more formidable partnership.
Nuclear Risks
The Iran conflict, particularly attacks on its nuclear facilities, has heightened fears of a nuclear catastrophe, with Russia warning of a “Chernobyl-style” disaster. Iran’s potential to accelerate its nuclear program in response to attacks could further destabilize the region, prompting stronger Russian and Chinese diplomatic support to prevent escalation.
Western Responses
The West faces a dilemma: balancing support for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan while avoiding overextension. NATO’s increased defense spending, as noted in a June 2025 ECFR survey, reflects European efforts to bolster security, but public support varies, with only 47% in Germany and 45% in France favoring higher budgets. This limits NATO’s ability to counter Russia and China simultaneously.web:previous_artifact
Future Scenarios
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Scenario 1: Coordinated Pressure: Russia and China could escalate further in Ukraine and Taiwan if the U.S. commits heavily to the Iran conflict, exploiting Western resource constraints.
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Scenario 2: De-escalation: Diplomatic efforts by Russia and China to mediate the Iran conflict could reduce tensions, allowing them to focus on their regional priorities without direct confrontation.
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Scenario 3: Regional Isolation: If Iran’s regime collapses, Russia and China may lose a key ally, forcing them to recalibrate their strategies, potentially intensifying actions in Ukraine and Taiwan to compensate.
Opportunistic timing
Russia’s escalation in Ukraine and China’s pressure on Taiwan are driven by a mix of opportunistic timing, economic interests, and strategic alignment with Iran against Western dominance. The Iran-US-Israel conflict provides a window for both powers to advance their agendas while the West is distracted, though their support for Iran remains largely diplomatic and economic due to their own regional priorities. Fresh data from 2025 highlights the interconnected nature of these crises, with oil prices, military resources, and diplomatic posturing shaping the global landscape. As the West navigates these challenges, understanding the motivations and limits of Russia and China’s actions will be crucial to preventing a broader conflict.
