As global tensions rise, particularly with Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, NATO’s role in European security has come under scrutiny. While NATO remains a cornerstone of collective defense, recent surveys reveal that European citizens’ support for the alliance—particularly its push for increased defense spending and compulsory military service—is far from unanimous. This article explores the reasons behind this lukewarm support, drawing on fresh data from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and other sources, to provide a nuanced understanding of European sentiments toward NATO.
Key Findings from the ECFR Survey
A survey conducted by the ECFR between mid and late May 2025, polling over 1,000 people per country across 12 European nations, highlights significant variations in support for NATO’s planned defense spending increases. The results show:
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High Support in Some Nations: Poland and Denmark lead with 70% approval for increased defense budgets, followed by Britain (57%), Estonia (56%), and Portugal (54%). These countries, particularly those near Russia’s borders, perceive a direct threat, driving stronger support.
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Moderate Support in Major Economies: Germany (47%), Spain (46%), France (45%), and Hungary (45%) show less enthusiasm, with support hovering below 50%. Economic concerns and differing threat perceptions may temper their backing.
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Strong Opposition in Italy: Italy stands out as an outlier, with 57% of respondents opposing higher defense spending and only 17% in favor. This suggests a deep-seated skepticism toward militarization or NATO’s priorities.
The survey also examined attitudes toward reintroducing compulsory military service, revealing further divisions:
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Pro-Military Service Sentiment: France (62%), Germany (53%), and Poland (51%) show majority or near-majority support for mandatory conscription, reflecting a willingness to bolster national defense.
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Resistance in Other Nations: In Spain and Britain, only 37% favor compulsory service, indicating reluctance among populations less exposed to immediate security threats.
These findings, commissioned by ECFR through Datapraxis, YouGov, and Norstat, underscore a complex European landscape where support for NATO’s initiatives varies by geography, history, and economic context.
Reasons Behind Limited Support for NATO
Economic Priorities and Budget Constraints
Many European citizens prioritize domestic issues like healthcare, education, and social welfare over defense spending. In countries like Italy, where 57% oppose increased military budgets, decades of economic stagnation and high public debt (exceeding 140% of GDP in 2024) make additional defense expenditures unpopular. Similarly, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has resisted NATO’s proposed 5% GDP defense spending target, arguing it would strain the welfare system and hinder EU security efforts. Citizens in these nations often view defense spending as a trade-off against pressing social needs.
Skepticism About NATO’s Relevance
Some Europeans question NATO’s role in a post-Cold War world. In Italy and Hungary, where support for NATO is lower, far-right and populist movements often frame the alliance as a tool of U.S. interests rather than a genuine European security framework. The ECFR survey notes that 57% of Italians oppose defense spending increases, possibly reflecting distrust in NATO’s alignment with national priorities. Additionally, historical neutrality in countries like Switzerland (not surveyed but relevant contextually) or cultural aversion to militarism in Germany shapes public skepticism.
Generational and Demographic Divides
The ECFR survey highlights a crucial demographic split: younger Europeans (aged 18–29), who would be most affected by compulsory military service, are less supportive of conscription. In countries like Spain, Britain, and Hungary, opposition to mandatory service outweighs support (e.g., 56% against in Spain, 58% in Hungary). This generational resistance stems from a lack of direct experience with large-scale conflicts and a preference for diplomatic or economic solutions over military ones.
Geopolitical Proximity to Threats
Support for NATO correlates strongly with proximity to Russia. Poland, Estonia, and Denmark, all near Russia or its allies, show robust backing for defense spending (70% in Poland and Denmark, 56% in Estonia). These nations view NATO as a critical deterrent against Russian aggression, especially after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Conversely, countries farther west, like Spain, France, and Italy, perceive less immediate danger, reducing their urgency to support NATO’s initiatives. For instance, only 45% of French respondents favor increased spending, despite France’s significant military role in Europe.
Distrust in U.S. Leadership
The re-election of Donald Trump in 2024 has amplified European concerns about NATO’s reliability. Trump’s calls for NATO members to increase spending to 5% of GDP, coupled with threats to reduce U.S. commitment, have sown unease. The ECFR survey notes that 86% of Danes view the U.S. political system as “broken,” and 76% see Trump’s leadership negatively. This distrust fuels skepticism about NATO’s dependence on U.S. support, prompting some Europeans to question whether the alliance serves their interests or merely U.S. geopolitical goals.
Broader Context: NATO’s Challenges in Europe
Beyond the ECFR survey, other sources provide context for European hesitancy toward NATO:
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Defense Spending Trends: NATO data from 2024 shows that only 23 of 32 members met the 2% GDP defense spending target, with laggards like Spain (1.3%) and Italy (1.5%) facing domestic resistance to further increases. Public opinion in these countries often favors fiscal restraint over military investment.
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EU Autonomy Debates: The ECFR survey reveals skepticism about the EU’s ability to achieve defense independence from the U.S., with only Denmark (52%) and Portugal showing majority optimism. This doubt undermines confidence in NATO as a U.S.-dominated alliance.
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Hybrid Threats and Public Awareness: NATO’s focus on hybrid threats (e.g., cyberattacks, disinformation) is less tangible to citizens than traditional military risks, reducing public urgency to support defense spending. This is particularly evident in western European nations less exposed to Russian hybrid tactics.
Opportunities for NATO to Build Support
To address these challenges, NATO could adopt strategies to align more closely with European citizens’ concerns:
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Transparent Communication: Highlighting how defense spending counters specific threats, like Russian cyberattacks or regional instability, could bridge the gap between NATO’s goals and public understanding.
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Economic Benefits: Framing defense investments as job creators (e.g., through local defense industries) could mitigate economic objections, particularly in countries like Italy and Spain.
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Youth Engagement: Tailoring outreach to younger generations, emphasizing diplomacy and technology alongside military readiness, could reduce resistance to initiatives like conscription.
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Strengthening EU-NATO Synergy: Demonstrating that NATO complements EU defense efforts could counter perceptions of U.S. dominance, appealing to skeptical nations like France and Germany.
Economic pressures
European support for NATO is shaped by a mix of economic pressures, geopolitical realities, and historical attitudes. While countries like Poland and Denmark rally behind NATO’s defense spending increases, others, notably Italy, Spain, and France, show significant resistance due to domestic priorities, skepticism about NATO’s relevance, and distrust in U.S. leadership. The ECFR survey underscores these divides, particularly on issues like compulsory military service, where younger generations and western European nations are less enthusiastic. For NATO to strengthen its standing, it must address these concerns through clear communication, economic incentives, and a balanced approach to transatlantic cooperation. As Europe navigates an uncertain security landscape, understanding and responding to public sentiment will be critical for NATO’s future.
