The European Union’s one-day summit on June 26, 2025, in Brussels was a pivotal moment, addressing a volatile mix of geopolitical crises and domestic priorities. From the fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, the Gaza humanitarian catastrophe, and internal challenges like competitiveness and climate goals, the summit underscored Europe’s complex position in a world teetering on the edge of conflict. But does this mean Europe is truly extricating itself from wars, or is it merely navigating a new role amid global turmoil?
The Middle East: A Ceasefire and a Humanitarian Dilemma
The summit’s agenda was shaped by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran on June 24, 2025. European leaders, wary of a potential regional escalation that could disrupt energy markets and trigger migration surges, welcomed the pause in hostilities. However, the ceasefire’s fragility—marked by ongoing tensions—raises questions about its durability and Europe’s role in sustaining it.
The cessation of Israel-Iran hostilities has shifted focus to Israel’s war in Gaza, where over 55,000 deaths have been reported, alongside widespread human rights violations. The European External Action Service (EEAS) recently reviewed the EU-Israel Association Agreement, citing “indications” of breaches under Article 2, including blockades on humanitarian aid, attacks on hospitals, forced displacements, mass arrests, and settler violence. Yet, the EU remains divided: Ireland and Spain advocate for suspending the agreement, while others prefer dialogue to improve conditions without punitive measures. The summit’s draft conclusions, which merely “take note” of the review and defer action to mid-July, reflect this impasse.
Implications: The EU’s hesitation risks undermining its moral authority, especially when contrasted with its decisive stance against Russia. Failure to address Gaza’s crisis—where 33,000 Palestinians, including 14,000 children, have died since October 2023—could fuel accusations of double standards, alienate the Global South, and exacerbate migration pressures. Europe’s increased humanitarian aid (over €1.08 billion since 2000, with €125 million pledged for 2024) is a step forward, but without political action, it may fall short of addressing the crisis’s root causes.
Ukraine and Russia: A Ceasefire Stalled by Division
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth year, remains a cornerstone of EU security policy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s virtual address to the summit emphasized the need for enhanced military aid, financial support, and progress on Ukraine’s EU candidacy. However, Hungary’s veto, driven by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s controversial national consultation, continues to freeze accession talks. The consultation, criticized for its anti-EU rhetoric, highlights Hungary’s divergence from the bloc’s unified stance.
The EU’s proposed phase-out of Russian fossil fuels by 2027, aimed at crippling Moscow’s war funding, faces resistance from Hungary and Slovakia. Both nations, reliant on Russian energy, argue that the plan threatens their energy security and could raise consumer prices. Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico have tied their support for the phase-out to the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia, which seeks a ceasefire but excludes a proposed reduction of the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel due to U.S. reluctance and Middle East-driven oil market volatility.
Implications: The EU’s sanctions, which have deprived Russia of €400 billion in resources since 2022, demonstrate resolve, but internal divisions weaken their impact. Hungary’s vetoes and Slovakia’s hesitancy risk prolonging the war, while U.S. policy shifts under Trump—who has threatened to cut aid to Ukraine—force Europe to consider greater strategic autonomy. A ceasefire remains elusive, with Russia demanding territorial concessions and Ukraine insisting on full withdrawal and security guarantees.
Balancing Competitiveness and Climate Goals
The summit also tackled tariffs, migration, competitiveness, and the Green Deal’s 2040 climate targets. With Trump’s tariff threats looming, the EU is under pressure to strengthen its economic resilience. Migration, exacerbated by Middle East conflicts, and energy security, tied to Russian fossil fuel dependence, complicate the bloc’s climate ambitions. The Green Deal’s push for carbon neutrality is critical, but disruptions in global energy markets could undermine progress.
Implications: Prioritizing competitiveness and climate goals amid geopolitical crises risks diverting resources from security needs. The EU’s €50 billion Ukraine Facility shows commitment to supporting Kyiv, but balancing these funds with domestic investments requires deft leadership to maintain public support.
Europe as a Global Mediator
Rather than being “out of all wars,” Europe is carving out a role as a global mediator. The Israel-Iran ceasefire offers a chance to lead on Gaza’s humanitarian crisis through increased aid or diplomatic pressure on Israel. In Ukraine, the EU’s sanctions and military support signal proactive engagement, despite reliance on U.S. leadership. By leveraging its economic clout and diplomatic channels, Europe could bridge divides between conflicting parties, distinguishing itself from Washington’s unilateralism.
This mediator role aligns with calls for a “big bang” in European defense spending, potentially unlocking €1 trillion over the next decade. Such investment could bolster the EU’s leverage in peace negotiations, but only if member states overcome divisions, as seen in Hungary’s and Slovakia’s resistance to sanctions and energy reforms.
Implications: Embracing mediation requires the EU to unify its foreign policy and invest in defense and energy independence. Failure to do so could relegate Europe to a bystander role, diminishing its global influence. Success, however, could position the EU as a counterweight to U.S. and Russian ambitions, fostering stability in a multipolar world.
War’s Shadow Looms Large
Europe is not “out of all wars” but deeply entangled in them, as the June 2025 EU Summit revealed. The Israel-Iran ceasefire, Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, and Ukraine’s ongoing struggle underscore the bloc’s challenges in navigating a turbulent world. Internal divisions, particularly Hungary’s obstructionism, and reliance on an unpredictable U.S. administration complicate Europe’s path. Yet, by embracing a mediator role, the EU could transform these challenges into opportunities, provided it overcomes disunity and invests in its strategic autonomy. For now, war’s shadow remains, and Europe’s quest for peace is far from over.
