In June 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a bold but poorly calculated assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leadership, aiming to cripple its nuclear ambitions and destabilize the regime. The operation, however, has backfired spectacularly, setting Israel’s strategic goals back by a decade, boosting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s domestic popularity, and reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics.
The Miscalculation of Operation Rising Lion
Israel’s surprise attack on June 12, 2025, targeted Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility, military bases, and key figures, including Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the strikes as a preemptive necessity, claiming Iran was on the brink of nuclear weaponization. However, the operation’s planning overlooked critical factors: Iran’s retaliatory capacity, the resilience of its underground facilities like Fordow, and the regional diplomatic fallout. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that while Natanz’s above-ground plant was destroyed, underground sites remained largely intact, undermining Israel’s primary objective.
Iran’s response, Operation True Promise III, saw over 100 ballistic missiles and drones strike Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa, killing at least 24 civilians and injuring hundreds. The attacks exposed vulnerabilities in Israel’s Iron Dome, with some missiles penetrating defenses, causing widespread destruction. This failure has set back Israel’s counterproliferation efforts, as Iran’s nuclear program, though damaged, persists with enriched uranium stockpiles at 60%, a short step from weapons-grade levels.
Implications: Israel’s inability to destroy Iran’s hardened facilities has emboldened Tehran, potentially accelerating its nuclear ambitions. The operation’s failure to achieve regime change or neutralize the nuclear threat has left Israel strategically weaker, with analysts estimating a 10-year setback in its ability to counter Iran militarily.
Khamenei’s Surge in Popularity:
Contrary to Israel’s hopes of sparking a popular uprising, the strikes have galvanized support for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. X posts suggest that the attacks unified Iranians, with many rallying behind the regime against external aggression. Khamenei’s televised vows of “harsh punishment” and his portrayal of Iran’s retaliation as a “hand slap to America’s face” resonated domestically, framing the conflict as a defense of national sovereignty.
The killing of senior military figures, while disruptive, allowed Khamenei to appoint loyalists, consolidating his grip on power. X posts indicate that the strikes sidelined reformists and opposition, strengthening the regime’s hardline base. Iran’s state media reported public demonstrations in Tehran, with citizens like Ali, a Basij militia member, vowing to “fight and die” for the nuclear program.
Implications: The rally-around-the-flag effect has bolstered Khamenei’s legitimacy, reversing years of domestic discontent. This surge could embolden Iran to pursue more assertive policies, including a potential nuclear breakout, as hardliners argue that only nuclear weapons can deter future attacks.
Israel’s Regime Change Plan: A Decade-Long Delay
Israel’s operation aimed to destabilize Iran’s regime by targeting its leadership and nuclear infrastructure, hoping to incite a “color” revolution. Instead, the strikes have strengthened Tehran’s resolve. The Atlantic Council notes that Israel’s lack of a postwar strategy and the regime’s resilience make regime change unlikely. The appointment of new commanders, such as Mohammad Pakpour to lead the Revolutionary Guards, has restored command-and-control, limiting the disruption’s impact.
Iran’s retaliatory strikes, which killed 224 Iranians, mostly civilians, have been framed as a unifying national tragedy, further dampening prospects for internal dissent. Israel’s failure to anticipate this outcome has set back its regime change ambitions, with experts estimating a decade before Israel can regroup for another attempt, given the need to rebuild military and intelligence capabilities.
Implications: The miscalculation has entrenched Iran’s theocratic regime, potentially increasing its regional influence and complicating Israel’s long-term security strategy.
Devastation of Israeli Cities: A Long Road to Recovery
Iran’s missile barrages have left Israeli cities like Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Petah Tikva in ruins, with residential buildings, power plants, and military sites heavily damaged. The Guardian reports 34 injuries and one death in Tel Aviv alone, with emergency services overwhelmed. The attack on Bat Yam, killing nine, was the deadliest Iranian strike in Israel’s history, with entire city blocks reduced to debris. Rebuilding could take years, with costs estimated in the billions, straining Israel’s economy.
Implications: The physical destruction has disrupted daily life, with closed airports and disrupted infrastructure hampering recovery efforts. The economic toll, coupled with rising oil prices, could push Israel into a prolonged recession, diverting resources from defense to reconstruction.
A Lasting Psychological Scar
The penetration of Israel’s vaunted air defenses has shattered public confidence. Residents like Aviad Charbon, whose Tel Aviv home was destroyed, describe a pervasive sense of vulnerability despite Israel’s early warning systems. X posts highlight growing domestic discontent, with some questioning Netanyahu’s leadership and the war’s cost. The psychological impact, with millions seeking shelter during air raids, may take years to heal, as citizens grapple with the fear of future attacks.
Implications: The loss of security could erode public support for aggressive military policies, pressuring the government to prioritize diplomacy. It also risks social unrest, as seen in protests against Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict.
Restored Confidence in Neighboring Countries
Israel’s aggressive campaign has paradoxically restored confidence among neighboring countries under its pressure. Jordan and Egypt, which have peace treaties with Israel, and Gulf states like the UAE, condemned the strikes, urging de-escalation. Iran’s retaliation, while destructive, demonstrated its ability to strike back, emboldening regional actors to resist Israeli dominance. The UAE’s statement against escalation and Oman’s hosting of U.S.-Iran talks signal a shift toward neutrality, reducing Israel’s regional leverage.
Implications: Israel’s weakened position may encourage neighbors to pursue independent foreign policies, potentially aligning closer with Iran or other powers like China, which has evacuated citizens from both countries.
Improved Arab-Iran Relations:
Israel’s actions have inadvertently pushed Arab states toward warmer relations with Iran. The Abraham Accords, which normalized ties between Israel and some Gulf states, are under strain as the UAE and others criticize Israel’s aggression. Iran’s diplomatic outreach, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi’s visits to Arab capitals, has capitalized on this discontent. Saudi Arabia, once aligned with Israel against Iran, now sees value in hedging bets, especially as oil prices spike due to regional instability.
Implications: Improved Iran-Arab ties could reshape the Middle East’s security order, sidelining Israel and complicating U.S. influence. This shift may accelerate if Iran leverages its nuclear program as a bargaining chip in negotiations.
A New Angle: Israel’s Strategic Overreach
Israel’s ill-planned attack reflects a broader strategic overreach, driven by hubris and a misreading of Iran’s resilience. By prioritizing military action over diplomacy, Israel has alienated allies, strengthened its adversary, and destabilized its own society. The EU’s call for restraint and China’s evacuations signal global concern over Israel’s actions. A smarter approach would have been to bolster regional alliances and pressure Iran diplomatically, avoiding a direct confrontation that has left Israel vulnerable.
Implications: Israel must now recalibrate its strategy, focusing on rebuilding defenses, restoring public trust, and engaging in multilateral diplomacy to counter Iran’s growing influence. Failure to adapt could cement its decade-long setback.
A Costly Misstep with Lasting Consequences
Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, intended to neutralize Iran’s nuclear threat and destabilize its regime, has instead set back its strategic goals by a decade. The attack has bolstered Khamenei’s popularity, entrenched Iran’s regime, devastated Israeli cities, eroded citizen security, emboldened neighboring countries, and improved Iran’s ties with Arab states. As Israel grapples with the fallout, the region faces a precarious future, with the risk of a nuclear arms race looming. Only through strategic restraint and renewed diplomacy can Israel hope to recover its lost ground.
