Germany’s political landscape continues to evolve following the February 23, 2025, snap federal election, which saw the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, secure a narrow victory with 28.5% of the vote. A recent ZDF poll conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen from June 24–26, 2025, reveals a slight uptick in support for the conservative bloc, now at 29%, despite a rocky start to Merz’s tenure.
The ZDF poll, conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, surveyed 1,378 German citizens between June 24 and 26, 2025, to gauge voting intentions if a federal election were held that Sunday. The poll provides a snapshot of public opinion less than two months after the CDU/CSU-led coalition, with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) as junior partner, assumed office. Results are compared to the February 2025 election outcomes and earlier June polls to assess shifts in voter preferences.
Key Findings from the June 2025 ZDF Poll
CDU/CSU Strengthens Position
The conservative bloc, comprising the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, saw a modest increase to 29% support, up from 28.5% in the February election and a 2-percentage-point gain since early June. Despite Merz requiring two parliamentary votes to secure the chancellorship—a first in German history—the bloc’s approval reflects voter confidence in its leadership amid economic and security challenges.
AfD Holds Second Place
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains a significant force, polling at 22%, a slight dip from 23% in early June but consistent with its historic 20.8% in February. The AfD’s strong showing, particularly in eastern Germany, underscores ongoing voter dissatisfaction with immigration and economic policies, though its political isolation limits coalition prospects.
3. SPD Stagnates as Junior Partner
The SPD, led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, polled at 15%, unchanged from early June and slightly below its 16.4% election result—the party’s worst since 1887. As junior partners in the CDU/CSU-led coalition, the SPD struggles to regain voter trust following the collapse of the “traffic light” coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) in November 2024.
Greens and Left Party in Opposition
The Greens, led by Robert Habeck, maintained 12% support, aligning with their 12% election result. The Left Party (Die Linke), which surprised with 8.8% in February, dropped to 10%, still a strong showing for a party that polled at 3% in late 2024. Its resurgence, particularly among younger voters, is attributed to progressive economic policies and viral social media campaigns.
FDP and BSW Below Threshold
Both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) polled below the 5% threshold required for Bundestag representation, at approximately 4.5% each. The FDP’s decline follows its role in the failed “traffic light” coalition, while the BSW, a left-conservative splinter from Die Linke, failed to sustain its earlier momentum from the 2024 European elections (6.2%) and eastern state elections (11–16%).
Shifting Voter Dynamics
The CDU/CSU’s slight gain suggests public approval of Merz’s early leadership, despite coalition tensions and a more conservative stance on immigration and economic policy compared to the Merkel era. The AfD’s steady support reflects persistent populist sentiment, particularly in eastern states, where it outperformed other parties in 2024 regional elections. The SPD’s stagnation highlights challenges in rebuilding credibility after governing setbacks, including economic contraction and energy cost concerns.
The Left Party’s resilience, driven by figures like Jan van Aken and viral campaigns targeting younger voters, contrasts with the BSW’s struggles. The BSW’s failure to cross the 5% threshold, despite earlier promise, may stem from internal disputes and voter confusion over its blend of left-wing economics and conservative social policies. The FDP’s continued decline underscores its precarious position, with its pro-market stance failing to resonate amid economic woes.
Implications for Germany’s Political Future
The CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, holding a slim majority (328 of 630 Bundestag seats), faces challenges in maintaining stability. Merz’s rejection of coalitions with the AfD and reluctance to partner with the Greens limit options, making the SPD a critical, albeit weakened, ally. The AfD’s isolation, despite its electoral gains, ensures it remains a protest vote rather than a governing force.
The Left Party’s gains and the Greens’ stability suggest a fragmented opposition, with potential for “red-red-green” alliances in future state elections. However, the BSW’s and FDP’s failure to enter parliament could simplify coalition dynamics, though their regional influence persists. Economic issues, immigration, and climate policy—key voter concerns—will shape the coalition’s agenda, with Merz’s “Agenda 2030” promising tax cuts and energy cost relief, while facing pressure to address the constitutional debt brake.
The June 2025 ZDF poll indicates a consolidating conservative base under Merz’s leadership, with the CDU/CSU gaining ground despite coalition challenges. The AfD’s persistent strength and the Left Party’s resurgence highlight Germany’s polarized political landscape, while the SPD’s stagnation and the FDP’s and BSW’s struggles signal ongoing fragmentation. As Germany navigates economic recovery and global tensions, these trends will influence coalition stability and policy priorities ahead of the next federal election by March 2029.
