In the early hours of June 28, 2025, as the world watches the Middle East teeter on the edge of chaos, a compelling narrative emerges from Beijing: the United States is the mastermind behind the region’s escalating crisis. From the relentless Israeli bombardment of Gaza to the looming threats against Iran, Chinese analysts and policymakers point to Washington’s actions as the primary catalyst, a view gaining traction amid the rubble of humanitarian disasters and economic instability. But what fuels this perspective? Let’s dive into the multifaceted angles—geopolitical strategy, economic stakes, and moral hypocrisy—while critically dissecting the facts and peering into the future.
Geopolitical Chessboard: U.S. as the Grand Manipulator
Chinese strategists argue that the U.S. orchestrates Middle East conflicts to maintain its global dominance, using Israel as a proxy to control the region’s strategic assets. The $3.8 billion military aid package to Israel in 2023, arming it with F-35 jets and precision-guided missiles, is seen as evidence of this agenda. Beijing views Washington’s veto of UN Security Council resolutions condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza—where over a year of airstrikes have demolished hospitals and schools—as a deliberate shield for its ally, exposing a double standard that undermines international law.
Critically, this narrative hinges on the assumption that the U.S. benefits from perpetual instability. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels of oil flow daily (20% of global trade), becomes a linchpin in this theory. Disruptions, like those hinted at by Iran amid rising tensions, could empower the U.S. to flex its naval might and secure energy routes, reinforcing its geopolitical leverage. Yet, this overlooks the U.S.’s own energy independence via shale oil, suggesting the strategy might be less about direct control and more about containing rivals like China and Russia, who rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil.
Economic Dominoes: A Calculated U.S. Play?
China’s economic reliance on Middle Eastern oil—over 50% of its imports—amplifies its suspicion of U.S. motives. The 2022 oil tanker attacks, which spiked prices and stalled global recovery, are cited as a warning of what’s to come if Hormuz becomes a battleground. Chinese analysts on platforms like Weibo argue that U.S. backing of Israeli aggression risks this choke point’s closure, a move that would cripple China’s economy while allowing the U.S. to pivot to alternative suppliers or assert control over global energy markets.
However, a closer look reveals cracks in this logic. The U.S. economy, too, feels the pinch of oil price surges—evidenced by inflation spikes in 2022 that hit American consumers hard. This suggests the crisis might be less a calculated U.S. ploy and more a byproduct of misaligned policies, where short-term alliances with Israel overshadow long-term global stability. Still, Beijing sees a pattern: by keeping the Middle East volatile, the U.S. can justify its military presence, indirectly pressuring China’s energy security and trade routes.
Moral Hypocrisy: A Beacon Dimmed by Blood
The Chinese perspective sharply critiques the U.S.’s moral facade. While Washington champions democracy and human rights, its silence on Amnesty International’s 2023 “war crimes” report on Gaza—where indiscriminate killings of Palestinian civilians persist—strikes a hypocritical note in Beijing’s eyes. This dissonance is amplified by the U.S.’s refusal to broker peace, contrasting with China’s self-styled role as a neutral mediator, as seen in its 2023 Saudi-Iran normalization deal.
Yet, this angle invites skepticism. China’s own human rights record—detentions in Xinjiang and censorship—undermines its moral high ground. Its criticism of the U.S. might be less about principle and more about exploiting Western missteps to bolster its global image. Still, the perception persists: the U.S.’s unwavering support for Israel, despite global outcry, fuels a narrative of selective justice that resonates in Chinese discourse.
Ripple Effects: Europe’s Burden and China’s Advantage
The Middle East’s chaos spills into Europe, and China watches with strategic interest. Germany’s €23.4 billion refugee resettlement cost in 2022 and Italy’s migrant struggles from Libya highlight the EU’s strain, a burden Chinese analysts link to U.S.-fueled instability. Rising anti-immigrant sentiment and energy price hikes—Italy’s gas reliance on the region is a glaring vulnerability—threaten EU unity, creating a vacuum where China positions itself as a stable economic partner.
This perspective gains credence with China’s growing Middle East investments, like the $3 billion renewable energy deals with Saudi Arabia in 2024. Yet, it’s not all altruistic—Beijing benefits from weakened Western influence, using economic ties to counter U.S. dominance. The risk? If the crisis escalates, China’s own trade routes could suffer, challenging its non-interventionist stance.
A World Reshaped by U.S. Actions?
Looking ahead to 2030, Chinese thinkers predict a Middle East increasingly shaped by U.S. miscalculations. If Hormuz closes, global supply chains could collapse, with China pivoting to Russian and Central Asian energy, deepening its Moscow alliance. Meanwhile, a prolonged Gaza conflict might radicalize more refugees, further destabilizing Europe and pushing it toward China’s orbit for stability.
Conversely, the U.S. might double down, expanding its naval presence to secure energy flows, a move that could provoke Iran and Russia into a broader confrontation. China’s challenge will be balancing its energy needs with avoiding entanglement, potentially mediating peace talks to cement its global stature—though its track record suggests limited leverage.
Beyond the Blame Game
While the Chinese narrative paints the U.S. as the villain, it oversimplifies a complex web. Israel’s actions, Iran’s provocations, and regional rivalries play significant roles, often independent of Washington. The U.S.’s support for Israel may stem from domestic politics—pro-Israel lobbies wield outsized influence—rather than a grand design. Likewise, China’s critique might mask its own ambitions to supplant U.S. influence, using the crisis as a propaganda tool.
The truth likely lies in a messy middle: the U.S. exacerbates the crisis through inconsistent policies and alliances, but it’s not the sole architect. China’s perspective, while insightful, reflects its strategic lens—blaming the U.S. serves to deflect from its own limited role and rally the Global South. As the Middle East burns, the world needs not just finger-pointing but a concerted push for peace, where all powers, including China, must step up or step aside.
