Turkey has steadily carved out a prominent role in Africa through a combination of trade, investment, energy exploration, and defense cooperation. Since the inception of its African Initiative Policy in 1998, Turkey has sought to expand its footprint on the continent, balancing economic ambitions with growing geopolitical influence. This strategy is not without competition, as Turkey must contend with China, Russia, and Gulf states, all of which have invested heavily in African infrastructure, energy, and trade.
Turkey’s African Initiative Policy:
Turkey’s outreach to Africa has been consistent since the late 1990s, with the launch of its African Initiative Policy. This effort initially focused on establishing commercial and diplomatic relations, but over time it evolved to include deeper security and energy partnerships. Volkan Ipek, a scholar from Yeditepe University, highlights that Turkey is aiming to increase trade and foster free-trade agreements in Africa as part of a broader foreign policy approach. Turkey’s engagement in Africa is characterized by an increase in diplomatic representation, with the number of Turkish embassies on the continent growing from 12 in 2002 to 44 by 2022.
This diplomatic expansion has been complemented by Turkish Airlines, which now services 62 African destinations, further facilitating trade and people-to-people exchanges. At the same time, 38 African nations have opened embassies in Ankara, symbolizing growing bilateral relations.
The Rise and Fall of Trade Volumes
Turkey’s trade with Africa has seen impressive growth, rising from $5.4 billion in 2003 to over $41 billion in 2022, although trade volumes dipped slightly to $37 billion in 2023. Despite these significant gains, Turkey still falls short of its ambitious trade targets. In 2012, Turkey envisioned a trade volume of €50 billion with Africa, a target that has yet to be realized.
The ambitious target was raised even further in 2021, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announcing a new goal of $75 billion in trade with Africa, although no timeline was provided for achieving this figure. While Turkey has made some headway, it continues to lag behind other international actors such as China, whose African investments and trade far surpass those of Turkey.
Africa’s Economic Potential
One of the primary drivers of Turkey’s interest in Africa is the continent’s young and rapidly growing population. This demographic shift offers significant opportunities for Turkish businesses, which are drawn by rising demand for goods and services. Turkey sees Africa as a lucrative market with strong growth potential, but it faces stiff competition from other global powers. China, for example, has built a massive infrastructure presence in Africa, with its investments totaling $282 billion in 2023 alone, compared to Turkey’s $10 billion to date.
Volkan Ipek believes Africa’s developing economies have created a “great market” that Turkey could tap into. However, Ufuk Tepebas, a researcher at the University of Basel, argues that Turkey needs to diversify its trade partners. Tepebas suggests that focusing on countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania could yield higher returns compared to Turkey’s current investments in Somalia and Sudan, which remain reliant on development aid and have limited trade potential.
Turkey’s Strategic Move in Somalia
One of the most recent and significant developments in Turkey’s African engagement is its energy exploration initiative in Somalia. In July 2023, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar signed a Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production agreement with Somalia, granting Turkey exclusive rights to explore and produce oil and gas in three blocks off Somalia’s coast.
The move marks a critical step in Turkey’s broader strategy to secure energy independence, as the country remains heavily dependent on foreign energy imports, with approximately 74% of its energy needs met through imports from Russia, Iran, Algeria, and Azerbaijan. Turkey also imports liquefied natural gas (LNG) from various countries, including the United States, Nigeria, and Russia.
According to Sohbet Karbuz, Director of Hydrocarbons and Energy Security at the Mediterranean Observatory for Energy and Climate (OMEC), Turkey’s exploration agreement with Somalia is a strategic step towards reducing its reliance on foreign energy. With proven oil reserves of at least 30 billion barrels off the coast of Somalia, Turkey is well-positioned to emerge as a player in deep-sea oil and gas exploration.
The Hydrocarbon Exploration agreement is just the beginning of Turkey’s broader ambitions to explore energy resources in Africa and beyond. Turkey is already exploring the possibility of similar agreements in the Gulf of Aden, the Indian Ocean, and the Black Sea, further reflecting its determination to diversify its energy portfolio.
The Role of Turkish Technology in Energy Exploration
Turkey’s exploration ambitions are bolstered by its technological expertise in deep-sea drilling. With four drilling ships and two seismic research vessels, Turkey has the necessary infrastructure to support its energy exploration initiatives. This technological advantage positions Turkey as a growing player in the global energy sector.
Turkey as a Security Partner:
Beyond trade and energy, Turkey is also establishing itself as a key security partner in Africa. Somalia is home to Turkey’s largest military base abroad, and Turkey has steadily expanded its defense and security cooperation with African nations. In 2023, the Turkish parliament approved the deployment of its military in Somalia for two years, reflecting Ankara’s commitment to enhancing security in the region.
Turkey’s defense partnerships in Africa are primarily focused on combating terrorism, particularly jihadist groups operating in the Sahel region. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Turkey is now the fourth-largest arms supplier to sub-Saharan Africa. Turkish arms exports include combat helicopters sold to Nigeria, training aircraft, and unmanned TB2 Bayraktar drones, which have been deployed by several African states to address security challenges.
Volkan Ipek notes that the increasing frequency of terrorist incidents in Africa will likely drive further defense cooperation between Turkey and African nations. This is particularly evident in regions such as the Sahel, where instability and terrorism have made security partnerships indispensable.
Turkey vs. China and Russia in Africa
While Turkey has made significant inroads in Africa, it faces stiff competition from China and Russia, both of which wield considerable influence on the continent. China’s economic dominance in Africa is underscored by its large-scale investments and infrastructure projects, while Russia has focused on expanding its military presence and political influence.
Turkey’s involvement in Africa remains dwarfed by China’s vast investments. Chinese companies benefit from substantial financial support from state-run banks, a privilege that Turkish firms do not enjoy. The Chinese Export-Import (Exim) Bank, for example, provides generous financing for large infrastructure projects, enabling Chinese companies to outbid competitors like Turkey for major contracts.
Despite this, Turkey has continued to pursue strategic projects in Africa. For example, Turkish construction firm Yapi Merkezi recently won a $2.35 billion contract to upgrade Tanzania’s railway network, underscoring Turkey’s ambition to remain a competitive player in African infrastructure development.
Turkey’s Future in Africa
Turkey’s growing presence in Africa reflects a multi-dimensional approach that encompasses trade, energy, defense, and diplomacy. While Turkey has made significant strides, it still faces several challenges, including stiff competition from global powers such as China and Russia. To remain competitive, Turkey must diversify its trade partners, deepen its energy exploration initiatives, and continue to strengthen security partnerships.
The future of Turkey’s engagement in Africa will likely depend on its ability to secure larger infrastructure projects, diversify its investment portfolio, and leverage its growing expertise in deep-sea energy exploration. As Turkey navigates its role in Africa, it must also carefully balance its geopolitical ambitions with the needs of its African partners.
References:
- South China Morning Post. Turkey’s energy ambitions in Somalia: Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production agreement.
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Arms Transfers and Turkey’s Role in Africa.
- Deutsche Welle (DW). Turkey’s Growing Influence in Africa: Trade, Energy, and Security Cooperation.
- Mediterranean Observatory for Energy and Climate (OMEC). Strategic Energy Partnerships in Africa.
