Statements from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, as published in Kommersant, suggest that Moscow differentiates Trump from other American leaders, praising his pragmatism and “common-sense” diplomacy.
Why Are Russians Trusting Trump?
According to Lavrov’s recent interview:
“Trump has repeatedly said that the colossal mistake which led to the current events in Ukraine was the Biden administration’s decision to drag Ukraine into NATO.”
This statement is key. Russia’s trust appears to rest on Trump’s anti-establishment stance and his repeated critique of NATO expansion, which directly aligns with the Kremlin’s worldview. In contrast to the Biden administration’s hawkish policies, Trump appears more willing to engage Russia diplomatically.
Other contributing factors:
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Trump’s historical admiration for Putin, dating back to 2016.
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His disdain for NATO, which Russia considers a military threat.
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His non-interventionist rhetoric, signaling a shift away from the post-Cold War U.S. foreign policy tradition.
What Could Be the Reasons for This Trust?
Trump’s Realpolitik Diplomacy
Trump’s “America First” strategy, paradoxically, offers room for international deals with adversaries. Lavrov emphasized that Trump and his diplomats have expressed interest in pragmatic negotiation rather than ideological confrontation.
“Russia and the US… must do everything possible to prevent contradictions from escalating into confrontation,” Lavrov noted.
Such rhetoric resonates deeply with Moscow, which prefers bilateralism over Western multilateralism, and values deals that reflect its national interests without being wrapped in liberal values.
The Biden Administration’s Support for Ukraine
Lavrov squarely blamed the Biden White House for the war:
“The US and EU organized and funded the anti-constitutional coup in Kiev in 2014.”
This framing supports a narrative that absolves Russia of initiating aggression, placing responsibility on Washington. Trump, in contrast, has distanced himself from that legacy, making him more favorable in Moscow’s eyes.
Personal Backchannels
Lavrov confirmed that Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Putin three times in 2025 alone. These informal diplomatic channels offer a platform for “shadow diplomacy,” a feature Trump used often during his first term (e.g., backchannels with North Korea and Saudi Arabia).
Interestingly, despite ongoing hostilities in Ukraine, Russia has avoided fresh U.S. tariffs under Trump’s sphere of influence.
Possible Explanations:
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Trump’s focus on China, not Russia, as the main strategic competitor.
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Backdoor agreements being formed on critical issues such as oil production, cybersecurity, or arms control.
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Mutual economic interests — such as stabilizing oil markets, where both countries are major players.
While no official document confirms this theory, the absence of new sanctions or tariffs during Trump’s active campaign phase and ongoing communications suggest that strategic calculations are being made in anticipation of a Trump presidency.
Is There Something Secret Going On Between Russia and the US?
Lavrov confirmed:
“Trump initiated direct talks with Russia in February… marking their third meeting this year.”
These discussions are not widely publicized in Western media, pointing to deliberate secrecy and parallel diplomacy, which Trump often prefers.
Economic Interests
Speculations abound about Russian assistance in stabilizing U.S. energy prices, or coordination in cybersecurity initiatives to prevent escalation during election periods. This cooperation may not be publicly acknowledged to avoid political backlash.
Possible Election Interference
There’s also concern in U.S. intelligence circles that Russia might covertly support Trump’s campaign again, as was alleged in 2016 and 2020. While no conclusive evidence exists in 2025, the pattern of Russia publicly favoring Trump raises red flags.
A Common Interest?
De-escalating the Ukraine War
Trump is pushing for a ceasefire, a position also echoed by Putin. This shared goal forms a mutual diplomatic interest and could reduce Western pressure on both sides.
Recalibrating Global Power Dynamics
Both Trump and Putin have challenged the liberal international order, favoring strong nation-state sovereignty over supranational institutions like the UN, NATO, and the EU.
Opposition to European Influence
Lavrov emphasized that the EU and UK are more aggressive toward Russia than Trump’s administration. This could incentivize Moscow to divide the Western alliance by warming relations with the U.S. under Trump.
Could There Be Something Going On
Absolutely. The Ukraine war may be the headline, but larger strategic interests are in play, including:
▪ Cybersecurity
Both countries face massive cybersecurity threats, and unofficial coordination to avoid mutual destruction is plausible.
▪ Energy Diplomacy
As energy superpowers, the U.S. and Russia both benefit from oil market stability. Quiet agreements on production limits, price bands, or exports could be underway.
▪ AI and Tech Competition
To avoid Chinese dominance, the U.S. and Russia may find common ground in emerging technologies such as AI and quantum computing.
Paradoxically, Russia’s public praise for Trump may be politically damaging to him domestically.
Why?
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Democratic critics can paint Trump as pro-Kremlin, reviving 2016-style allegations of collusion.
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Lavrov’s endorsement could alienate moderate Republicans or independents wary of Trump’s foreign ties.
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Public visibility of meetings, like the ones between Putin and Trump’s envoy, raises eyebrows in national security circles.
Yet, from Russia’s point of view, even if this weakens Trump politically, his ideological influence within U.S. politics remains a net win for the Kremlin — as it fuels polarization, weakens NATO, and slows down U.S. support for Ukraine.
Strategic Trust, Not Friendship
The trust that Russian elites express toward Donald Trump is not emotional or ideological — it is strategic and tactical. Russia sees in Trump:
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A chance to restructure post-Cold War geopolitics,
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An opportunity to fragment the Western alliance, and
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A potential end to what it sees as NATO encirclement.
While these developments raise questions of backroom diplomacy and shadow negotiations, they also illustrate how foreign governments actively shape and exploit internal U.S. political rifts.
Whether Trump wins or not, Russia’s strategic bet on him speaks volumes about how global power is being recalibrated — not just on the battlefield, but also at the ballot box.
References
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Kommersant. (2025)
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Global Times (2025). [Lavrov’s statements on US-Russia relations]
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Politico. (2024). “Trump and NATO: A Love-Hate Relationship”
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Foreign Policy. (2024). “Putin’s View on NATO and Trump”
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The Atlantic Council. (2023). “Shadow Diplomacy and Backchannels in US-Russia Talks”
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BBC. (2024). “Russia’s Role in US Elections: What We Know”
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Brookings Institution. (2025). “Energy Diplomacy Between the US and Russia”
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National Security Archive. (2024). “Declassified Documents on US-Russia Cyber Talks”
