President Donald Trump’s first official overseas tour as president—visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—sent shockwaves through the geopolitical landscape. Notably absent from his itinerary was Israel, Washington’s long-standing strategic ally in the Middle East. This deliberate omission, coupled with controversial Gaza proposals, has sparked intense debate: Is the Trump administration recalibrating its relationship with Israel over the Gaza conflict?
Trump’s Gulf Tour: A Strategic Pivot Away from Israel?
Trump’s decision to prioritize Gulf monarchies over Israel during his May 2025 Middle East tour marked a historic departure from decades of U.S. foreign policy. Unlike his predecessors, who often made Israel their first stop, Trump secured over $2 trillion in economic deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, focusing on arms, AI, aviation, and infrastructure investments. This transactional approach—rooted in Trump’s “America First” doctrine—signals a shift toward economically potent partners who offer tangible returns without the ideological baggage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Why bypass Israel? Observers point to growing tensions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, particularly over Israel’s hardline Gaza policies and the influence of far-right factions. Trump’s exclusion of Israel, alongside the cancellation of a planned visit by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, suggests a cooling of the “special relationship” that has defined U.S.-Israel ties for decades. Is this a temporary snub or a deeper strategic realignment?
The Gaza Proposal: A Radical Vision Raising Questions
Trump’s February 2025 Gaza proposal—envisioning U.S. “ownership” of the Gaza Strip and the relocation of its 2.2 million Palestinian residents to neighboring countries—has intensified speculation about his administration’s priorities. Described as transforming Gaza into a “Riviera of the Middle East,” the plan has drawn fierce criticism from Arab leaders, Palestinians, and even some U.S. Republicans, who call it “morally grotesque” and a threat to regional stability. Israel, however, expressed openness to the idea, with Netanyahu calling it “remarkable”.
Key questions arise:
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What legal authority does Trump have to execute such a plan? The proposal’s feasibility is unclear, with no legal framework for U.S. control of Gaza.
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Why was Israel excluded from discussions? Reports of covert U.S.-Hamas talks, including the release of U.S.-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander, suggest Washington is bypassing Israel in Gaza negotiations.
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Is this ethnic cleansing? Critics, including U.N. experts, argue the plan amounts to forced displacement, violating international law.
The proposal’s lack of coordination with Israel raises doubts about its alignment with Israeli interests, despite Trump’s pro-Israel rhetoric during his first term.
Strained U.S.-Israel Relations: What’s Driving the Rift?
Tensions between Trump and Netanyahu stem from several flashpoints:
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Houthi Ceasefire: Trump’s unilateral decision to halt U.S. military actions against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, without consulting Israel, angered Jerusalem, which faces ongoing Houthi attacks.
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Iran Negotiations: The U.S.’s renewed talks with Iran, mediated by Oman, conflict with Israel’s push for military action against Tehran’s nuclear program.
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Syria Policy: Trump’s embrace of Syria’s new leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, and plans to lift sanctions contrast with Israel’s airstrikes and control over Syrian territories.
These divergences suggest Trump prioritizes economic and diplomatic flexibility over Israel’s security-driven agenda. Is Trump distancing himself from Israel to appeal to Arab partners, or is he leveraging Israel’s isolation to push for concessions?
The Gulf States: Emerging Powerhouses in Trump’s Vision
The Gulf monarchies—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—offer Trump what Israel cannot: massive economic investments and strategic partnerships free from domestic political constraints. Saudi Arabia’s $600 billion deal, Qatar’s $1.2 trillion package, and the UAE’s $200 billion agreements underscore their role as global economic players. These nations are transitioning from oil-dependent economies to hubs of technology, finance, and logistics, aligning with Trump’s vision of a “global entrepreneur” America.
Unlike Israel, these states do not demand unconditional U.S. support or meddle in American politics. Their governance model—described as “sheikhism”—blends tradition with modernization, offering stability and adaptability. Could this make them more attractive partners for a transaction-focused Trump administration?
The Palestinian Question: A Game-Changer on the Horizon?
Rumors of U.S. recognition of a Palestinian state have added fuel to the debate. Such a move would fundamentally reshape Middle East dynamics, potentially isolating Israel while elevating the Gulf states and Türkiye as regional power centers. Trump’s Gaza plan, which sidelines the two-state solution, contrasts with Arab leaders’ insistence on Palestinian statehood as a prerequisite for normalization with Israel.
Key questions include:
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Will Trump recognize a Palestinian state? This would mark a seismic shift from his first term’s pro-Israel policies, such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
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How will Israel respond? Netanyahu’s far-right coalition opposes any concessions, risking further strain with Washington.
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What role will Gulf states play? Their rejection of Trump’s Gaza plan and support for Palestinian-led reconstruction suggest a counterbalance to U.S.-Israel dominance.
Public Opinion and Domestic Implications
U.S. public opinion on Israel is shifting, with 53% of Americans expressing unfavorable views in 2025, up from 42% in 2022. Younger Democrats, in particular, are critical of Israel’s Gaza operations, which have killed over 52,000 Palestinians. Trump’s Gaza rhetoric may be an attempt to appeal to this demographic while maintaining his pro-Israel base, but his mixed signals—supporting Israel militarily while criticizing its “PR war”—create ambiguity.
Domestically, Trump’s focus on Gulf investments could boost his “Make America Great Again” agenda, creating jobs and strengthening U.S. industries. However, his Gaza proposal risks alienating both pro-Israel Republicans and progressive voters, raising the question: Can Trump balance these competing interests?
A New Middle East Order?
Trump’s 2025 Middle East strategy—prioritizing Gulf partnerships, sidelining Israel, and proposing radical Gaza solutions—suggests a pivot toward pragmatic, economically driven foreign policy. While the U.S.-Israel alliance remains militarily robust, strategic divergences and Trump’s transactional approach raise doubts about Israel’s “special status.” As the Gulf states emerge as global players and the Palestinian question looms large, the region stands at a crossroads.
Will Trump’s vision for Gaza reshape the Middle East, or will it deepen instability? Can the U.S.-Israel relationship withstand these tensions, or is a new geopolitical reality—centered on Gulf power and economic pragmatism—already taking shape? Only time will tell, but Trump’s moves demand close scrutiny.
