As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares for his high-profile visit to Riyadh in May, 2025, the stakes are monumental. Greeted with Saudi Arabia’s signature opulence—gilded palaces, ceremonial grandeur, and promises of $1 trillion in investments—Trump’s agenda is overshadowed by a persistent obstacle: the elusive goal of Saudi-Israel normalization. The ongoing war in Gaza, now 18 months long, has not only stalled these talks but redefined the region’s diplomatic landscape.
The Gaza Roadblock: A Shifting Diplomatic Paradigm
The Gaza conflict, ignited by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, has claimed 52,000 lives and displaced 1.9 million people, according to Reuters. This humanitarian crisis has made Saudi-Israel normalization politically toxic for Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the kingdom’s de facto ruler, has publicly conditioned any normalization talks on an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and a credible path to Palestinian statehood. This stance reflects not only domestic and regional pressures but also Saudi Arabia’s desire to maintain its moral authority in the Muslim world.
Behind closed doors, U.S. officials are pressing Israel for a ceasefire, a prerequisite for restarting normalization discussions, according to Gulf and U.S. sources. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to commit to a permanent end to the war or a Palestinian state poses a significant hurdle. This deadlock has forced a strategic pivot: normalization has been “delinked” from other U.S.-Saudi bilateral priorities, such as economic partnerships and security agreements, allowing both nations to focus on immediate, tangible gains.
Economic Allure: $1 Trillion and Beyond
Trump’s visit is poised to spotlight Saudi Arabia’s economic leverage, with a potential $1 trillion investment package in U.S. companies, building on an earlier $600 billion pledge. These deals span arms, mega-projects, and artificial intelligence, reflecting Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 ambitions to diversify beyond oil. The kingdom’s playbook is clear: dazzle with wealth, secure influenceHerrs favor. As Robert Mogielnicki of the Arab Gulf States Institute notes, the trip is designed for “splashy deal announcements” to showcase mutual benefits for the U.S. and Saudi economies.
This economic focus serves a dual purpose for Saudi Arabia. Domestically, it reinforces MBS’s image as a global dealmaker. Regionally, it counters Iran’s influence and China’s growing foothold in the Gulf. However, Saudi Arabia is also pushing the U.S. to ease regulations that deter foreign investment in critical sectors, a move aimed at maintaining its economic flexibility amid China’s aggressive courtship of Gulf capital.
The Abraham Accords and Trump’s Legacy
Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, recently hinted at imminent progress on expanding the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states during Trump’s first term. However, Saudi Arabia’s inclusion in this framework remains elusive. The kingdom’s non-recognition of Israel, coupled with the Gaza crisis, makes normalization a “heavier lift” than economic deals, as Mogielnicki puts it. Trump’s ambition to secure a historic Saudi-Israel deal is central to his foreign policy legacy, but the current impasse suggests a more pragmatic approach for now.
A potential U.S. framework to end the Gaza war, possibly involving a transitional government and new security arrangements, could pave the way for future talks. Such a plan would align with Saudi Arabia’s preconditions and signal Trump’s commitment to resolving the conflict, even if indirectly. Yet, his decision to exclude Israel from this trip and his silence on controversial proposals like the “Gaza Riviera” indicate a cautious approach to avoid alienating Arab allies.
China’s Shadow: A New Great Game
Beneath the pomp of Trump’s visit lies a broader U.S. effort to counter China’s expanding influence in the Gulf. Since Vision 2030’s launch, China has become a key partner in Saudi Arabia’s energy, infrastructure, and renewable sectors. The U.S. sees this as a threat to the petrodollar system and its regional dominance. Saudi Arabia, aware of its leverage, is playing both sides, urging the U.S. to create a more business-friendly climate while deepening ties with Beijing.
This geopolitical tug-of-war adds complexity to U.S.-Saudi relations. While Trump’s first term saw robust Saudi investments ($350 billion), his second term must contend with a more assertive China. Saudi Arabia’s push for relaxed U.S. regulations reflects its desire to maintain economic agility, ensuring it isn’t overly reliant on either superpower.
A Delicate Balancing Act
Trump’s Riyadh visit is a microcosm of the Middle East’s complexities. Saudi Arabia, caught between domestic expectations, regional rivalries, and global ambitions, is using its economic clout to navigate the normalization quagmire. The U.S., eager for economic wins and a counterweight to China, is prioritizing pragmatism over idealism. While Gaza remains a formidable barrier, the seeds of future diplomacy—ceasefire frameworks, security guarantees, and economic partnerships—are being sown.
